BMIE Market 12542

Ulster County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,612 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±709 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,106 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±277 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,913 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,436 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,378 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,293 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,955 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±467 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$416,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±39,068 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	14.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12542
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	62 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12542. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.6	74	40%	+29.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.4	51	35%	+18.0
Market Momentum Score	62.2	62	25%	+15.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,612	62	40%	+24.9
Median household income (ACS)	121,378	91	40%	+36.3
Households (ACS)	2,106	62	20%	+12.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	21.4	34	25%	+8.5
Population (ACS)	5,612	62	20%	+12.5
Median household income (ACS)	121,378	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 6 · Italian 6 · Bakery 5 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 3 · Pizza 3 · Burgers 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Japanese 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Bakery 6 · Casual dining 6 · Winery / distillery / taproom 6 · Bar 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Café 2 · Quick service 2 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Benmarl Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		156 Highland Ave	open
Brix Gastropub	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1 King St	open
Brunel & Rafael Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		180 South St	open
Buddy Boy's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1022 Route 9W	open
Caraway Tea Company	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	6 Summit Dr	open
Chestnut Market	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1417 Rte 9W	open
China Rose	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	1191 U S 9W	open
Comparetto Bakery	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Italian · Coffee	20 Western Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	1417 Route 9W	open
Family Affair	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1191 US-9W	open
Fermata Cafe & Roastery	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	1313 US-9W	open
Frank's Village Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	4 Western Ave	open
Halfsies Cookie Company	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Bakery · Juice / smoothies	71 Hudson Ter	open
Hazel Rose Baking Company	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1447 US-9W Suite 2	open
Hidden Cellar Corp Dba Encore Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1441 Route 9W	open
Kimberly’s Sweet Treats	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1504 US-9W	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		29 Western Ave	open
Marlboro Bagel Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1191 Route 9W	open
Marlo Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1447 US-9W	open
Philly Cheesesteaks and Locks	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Rt 9w	open
Pizza Town Pizza Town Marlboro NY	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1326 US-9W	open
Quartz Rock Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		40 Mountain Rd	open
Raccoon Saloon	Casual dining · Bar	American	1330 Route 9W	open
Ronin Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Japanese · Italian · Sushi · American	1441 Route 9W	open
Stoutridge Distillery and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		10 Ann Kaley Ln	open
The Angry Chef	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1191 Route 9W	open
The Garage Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		25 Western Ave	open
The Kedem Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1519 US-9W	open
The Kitchen Counter	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	25 Western Ave	open
Valley Diner NY	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	5500 Route 9W	open
Weed Farms Pick Your Own	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	43 Mount Zion Rd	open
Weed Orchards & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		43 Mount Zion Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	7	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	9	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	8	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	8	7	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	12	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	8	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	14	13	9	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	7	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	12	4	5	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12542. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12547	3.6 mi	5	2023
12512	4.9 mi	1	2013

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.