BMIE Market 12545

Dutchess County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,338 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±345 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,988 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±254 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,763 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,431 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$101,354 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,148 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	56.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,264 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±198 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$516,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±182,065 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	56.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12545
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-46.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 6–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	42 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	10 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12545. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.1	68	40%	+27.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41.6	42	35%	+14.6
Market Momentum Score	9.7	10	25%	+2.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,338	58	40%	+23.2
Median household income (ACS)	101,354	82	40%	+32.7
Households (ACS)	1,988	61	20%	+12.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	35%	+3.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.4	41	25%	+10.4
Population (ACS)	4,338	58	20%	+11.6
Median household income (ACS)	101,354	82	20%	+16.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 10 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	50%	+4.8
10-year restaurant growth	-33.3	9	30%	+2.8
20-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	20%	+2.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 3 · European 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Indian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Bar 2 · Bakery 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Babette's Kitchen	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	3293 Franklin Ave	open
Barbaro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	3279 Franklin Ave	open
Cafe Les Baux	Café	French · European · Coffee	152 Church St	open
Canoe Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3264 Franklin Ave	open
Charlotte's Restaurant and Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Seafood · European	4258 US-44	open
China Tokyo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3292 Franklin Ave	open
House of Stefas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	3299 Franklin Ave	open
Julien's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sushi · Japanese	5 Washington Ave	open
Love Feast	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Vegetarian	3274 Franklin Ave	open
Millbrook Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	3288 Franklin Ave	open
Millbrook continental	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Latin American (other)	18 Alden Pl	open
Millbrook Deli	Specialty food shop · Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American · Breakfast	3281 Franklin Ave	open
Millbrook Vineyards & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		26 Wing Rd	open
Nooch's Pub & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		156 Church St	open
Shady Knoll Orchards & Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		37 Brush Hill Rd	open
The Bird Dog Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3047 US-44	open
The Farmer's Wife	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3809 U.S.-44	open
Tower Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza		open
Trattoria San Giorgio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	3279 Franklin Ave	open
Wing's Castle	Winery / distillery / taproom		717 Bangall Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	15	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	10	9	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	11	9	8	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	7	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	7	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	13	10	8	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	15	11	8	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	11	8	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	7	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	12	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	11	9	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	12	8	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	9	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	10	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	9	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	11	9	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12545. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12585	4.6 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.