BMIE Market 12549

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,745 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,010 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,650 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±342 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,201 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,704 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$122,734 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,806 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,633 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±222 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$407,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,628 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	38.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12549
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	26.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+13.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+4.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 18–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12549. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.2	79	40%	+31.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.1	60	35%	+21.0
Market Momentum Score	60.4	60	25%	+15.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,745	72	40%	+28.8
Median household income (ACS)	122,734	91	40%	+36.5
Households (ACS)	3,650	70	20%	+14.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	13.6	57	35%	+20.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	23.3	30	25%	+7.4
Population (ACS)	10,745	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	122,734	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.6	72	50%	+35.9
10-year restaurant growth	13.6	57	30%	+17.2
20-year restaurant growth	4.2	37	20%	+7.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (50)

By cuisine

American 15 · Pizza 7 · Italian 6 · Coffee 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Dessert 3 · Mexican 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Chinese 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Brazilian 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Casual dining 10 · Bar 9 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
88 Charles Street Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	88 Charles St	open
Amalfi Trattoria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	631 NY-17K	open
American Grill Stony Ford	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	stony ford golf course	open
Antonio's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	118 Clinton St	open
Barbecue Specialists	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	886 NY-17K	open
Blazing Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	111 Hawkins Dr	open
Blimpie	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2050 State Route 208	open
Brady's Bistro	Casual dining		1019 Rt 17K	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2076 NY-208	open
Camillo's At The Cross Roads	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2215 State Route 208	open
Carmela's Restaurant Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1021 NY-17K	open
Cascarino's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	121 Hawkins Dr	open
Chinatown Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1025 NY-17K	open
City Winery Hudson Valley City Winery Chicago	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		23 Factory St	open
Copperfields Kildare Pub	Bar	British / Irish pub food	93 Clinton St	open
Country Pride Country Pride	Casual dining	American	125 Neelytown Rd	open
Culinary Creations	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	550 Dunn Rd	open
DirtySips	Food truck		1130 State Route 17K	open
Dragon City	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	112 Clinton St	open
Duffy's Ice Cream & Sweets Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		94 Clinton St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	2099 New York 208	open
Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	2057 State Route 208	open
Eat This Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	6 Union St	open
Eddys Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)		118 Clinton St	open
Empanada Nirvana Montgomery NY	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service · Café	Sandwiches · Latin American (other) · Coffee · American	886 NY-17K	open
Flor De Maguey	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	91 Clinton St	open
Francescas Pizzeria and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	201 Ward St	open
Garrison's Tavern	Bar		11 Union St	open
Hoshin Black Belt Academy	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2245 State Route 208	open
Iron Cafe	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	59 Clinton St	open
Java Blue Coffee & Food Market	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8 Union St	open
Java Blue Coffee And Market	Coffee shop	Coffee	8 Union St	open
Lolly's Airport Inn	Bar		266 Union St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2083 State Hwy Rt 208 S	open
Mike's Deli & Pizza &pizza	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza	135 Union St #1316	open
Orange County Streats	Food truck	American	1130 NY-17K	open
PBF Cafe Montgomery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Brazilian · Latin American (other) · German / Eastern European	94 Clinton St	open
Pizza Hut Express Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	125 Neelytown Rd	open
Renee's Hot Stuff Deli	Quick service		206 Montgomery Rd	open
Richard's Dairy Shed	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1103 NY-17K	open
RoseMary's Pub & Grub	Bar · Casual dining		11 Union St	open
Sher Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2231	open
Strada Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Steakhouse	1011 NY-17K	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2040 State Route 208	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2095 Route 208	open
The Cauldron	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mediterranean	631 NY-17K	open
The Table	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	73 Clinton St	open
Vic's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	108 Clinton St	open
Ward's Bridge Inn	Casual dining · Bar	American	135 Ward St	open
Wildfire Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	74 Clinton St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	18	15	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	16	13	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	19	15	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	22	20	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	22	17	5	11	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	21	16	5	10	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	22	17	7	9	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	22	17	7	9	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	24	20	11	7	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	29	24	13	9	2	2	NAICS2002
2004	29	25	13	10	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	32	25	12	11	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	33	27	15	10	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	31	27	14	11	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	32	28	13	12	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	32	28	13	12	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	31	27	12	12	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	30	25	12	10	3	—	NAICS2007
2012	25	22	12	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	24	22	8	12	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	23	22	8	12	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	26	24	9	13	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	24	21	7	12	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	24	21	9	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	24	22	8	10	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	26	21	7	9	5	—	NAICS2017
2020	22	20	8	9	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	21	8	8	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	27	22	10	8	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	25	12	9	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12549. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12543	3.4 mi	3	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.