BMIE Market 12564

Dutchess County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,734 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±475 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,850 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±218 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,338 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,052 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$111,324 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,405 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,502 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±355 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$446,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,757 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	41.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12564
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+38.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+47.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+127.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 19–28) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.28) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12564. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.28, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.9	75	40%	+30.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.1	63	35%	+22.1
Market Momentum Score	85.2	85	25%	+21.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,734	67	40%	+26.8
Median household income (ACS)	111,324	87	40%	+34.9
Households (ACS)	2,850	66	20%	+13.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	47.1	79	35%	+27.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	32.3	18	25%	+4.5
Population (ACS)	7,734	67	20%	+13.4
Median household income (ACS)	111,324	87	20%	+17.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	38.9	87	50%	+43.6
10-year restaurant growth	47.1	79	30%	+23.8
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (34)

By cuisine

Pizza 6 · American 5 · Coffee 5 · Italian 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Quick service 6 · Café 5 · Bar 4 · Specialty food shop 4 · Casual dining 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Food truck 2 · Catering 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&R pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	19 E Main St	open
Bab's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	145 NY-22	open
Brawling Brothers Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		Sunset Avenue	open
Cornerstone Restaurant & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	146 E Main St	open
Creams & Crumbs	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	9 E Main St	open
DC Malaysian Food	Food truck	Southeast Asian (other) · Asian	998 NY-22	open
Forrest Sidestreet Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	6 NY-22	open
Froggy's Sandwiches Froggy's Sandwiches-Somers NY	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Breakfast	31 NY-22	open
Gaudino Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	19 E Main St	open
Great Wall II Take Out Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	60 Charles Colman Blvd	open
Kai's Chinese Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	145 NY-22	open
Karen's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	56 NY-22	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings		open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	Route 22 Dutchess County Plaza	open
Main Street Café & Deli	Café · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Mexican · Sandwiches · Coffee	50 Charles Colman Blvd	open
Mario's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	118 Route 22	open
McGrath's	Bar		146 E Main St	open
Mckinney & Doyle Corner Bakery & Fine Foods Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10 Charles Colman Blvd	open
Mimas Pizza & Pasta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	145 NY-22	open
Ming Guang	Restaurant (service type not stated)		158 Route 22	open
O'Connor's Public House	Bar · Casual dining	British / Irish pub food	6 Broad St	open
Pawling Bread Co.	Café	Coffee	10 E Main St	open
Pawling Tavern	Bar		36 Charles Colman Blvd	open
Rincon Latino Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	118 RT-22	open
Roseann's Kitchen	Food truck · Catering	American	993 NY-22	open
Sunflour Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	5 Broad St	open
Tacos And Cones	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	9 E Main St	open
Tap House Tavern Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		42 Charles Colman Blvd	open
The Bakeria	Bakery	Bakery	9 E Main St	open
Theturkpawling	Restaurant (service type not stated)		42 Charles Colman Blvd	open
Tony's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	841 NY-22	open
Towne Crier Cafe	Café	Coffee	130 Route 22	open
Village Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	46 Charles Colman Blvd	open
Vinny's Deli & Pasta	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · Italian	14 E Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	14	13	6	6	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	16	12	7	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	20	16	8	7	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	21	19	9	8	2	1	NAICS1997
2002	15	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	15	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	15	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	15	11	9	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	11	11	8	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	11	11	9	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	14	10	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	17	8	9	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	19	17	8	9	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	23	20	9	10	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	23	20	9	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	19	9	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	18	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	18	8	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	18	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	18	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	20	8	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	21	8	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	25	9	15	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12564. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
06784	4.4 mi	3	2020

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.