BMIE Market 12771

Orange County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,049 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±714 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,691 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±411 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,511 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,165 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$68,136 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,152 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,313 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±245 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$261,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,089 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	34.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	29 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12771
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	21.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-6.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.8% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-3.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+20.8% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	34 (range 28–41) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.39) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	34 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12771. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.39, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	63.1	63	40%	+25.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.3	55	35%	+19.3
Market Momentum Score	33.8	34	25%	+8.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,049	76	40%	+30.2
Median household income (ACS)	68,136	44	40%	+17.6
Households (ACS)	5,691	76	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20.8	64	35%	+22.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.6	36	25%	+8.9
Population (ACS)	14,049	76	20%	+15.1
Median household income (ACS)	68,136	44	20%	+8.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-6.5	21	50%	+10.8
10-year restaurant growth	20.8	64	30%	+19.2
20-year restaurant growth	-3.3	19	20%	+3.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (56)

By cuisine

American 13 · Burgers 6 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Bakery 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 4 · Dessert 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Hot dogs 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Vegan 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Halal / kosher 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 36 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 9 · Quick service 7 · Dessert 5 · Specialty food shop 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Ninjas Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2 E Main St	open
A Taste of Sicily	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	50-52 Front St	open
Arlene & Tom's Restaurant	Casual dining	American	265 E Main St	open
Bagel Barn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	31 Pike St	open
Bagel Station Deli	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches · Breakfast	1 W Main St	open
Bella Notte Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	230 Us-209	open
Ben's Fresh	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	33 E Main St	open
Breathless Raw Live Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegan · Healthy / salads / bowls	85 Pike St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	100 Pike St	open
C And G Ventures Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		57 Jersey Ave	open
Caesar & Jaydons Palace Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		87 S Maple Ave	open
Chestnut Creek Baked Goods	Bakery	Bakery	84 Front St	open
Chianti Cow Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	1483 US-6	open
Crown Fried Chicken & ( Halal Food)	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Halal / kosher · American	105 Jersey Ave	open
Curious Elixirs	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Dad's Change of Pace	Casual dining · Bar	American	172 Pike St	open
Danny D's Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	230 US-209	open
Dave's Devil Dogs	Quick service · Food truck · Bar		958 US Highway 6	open
DJ G	Bar			open
Dominique's Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	230 US-209, 230 US-209	open
Dunkin'	Dessert · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	291 E Main St	open
El Patron Mexican Restaurant El Patrón	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Dessert	104 US Highway 6	open
Fogwood + Fig	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegan	24 Front St	open
Fork N Fuel	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Hot dogs · American	31 Pike St	open
Fox N Hare Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Casual dining · Bar	Bakery · Coffee	46 Front St	open
Front Street Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Coffee	78 Front St #58	open
Gino's Tavern and Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		28 Pike St	open
Gio's Gelato Cafe	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	32 Front St	open
Good Friend Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	181 Pike St	open
Greenville's Firehouse Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bar	Sandwiches	Route 6	open
Hess Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36 Kingston Ave Apt 12	open
Hess's deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	36 Kingston Ave	open
JJ International Delicatessen	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	174 Pike St	open
Kaltec Food Packaging	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	36 Center St	open
Katery To Go	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	78 Front St #62	open
KFC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	290 E Main St	open
Len & Jo's Bar And Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		186 W Main St	open
Ma's & Papa Joe's	Casual dining · Bar		105-109 Pike St	open
Ming Moon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	59 Front St	open
Muller's Port Jervis Diner	Casual dining	American	East Main Street	open
Port Jervis Brick Oven Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	189 Pike St	open
Port Jervis Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	55 Seward Ave	open
Port Jervis Fish & Chips	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood		open
Riverside Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5 Water St	open
Riverside ice	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	138 W Main St	open
Rosie’s Italian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · American	21 Pike St	open
Roy's corner @ Homers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	2 E Main St	open
Sazón Latino	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Spanish / tapas	50-52 Front St	open
Station 9 Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		9 Jersey Ave	open
Tactikal Tacos, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	105 Jersey Ave	open
Team Usa Sports Camp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		96 Team USA Way	open
Texas Lunch	Casual dining	American · Hot dogs · Burgers	57 Jersey Ave	open
The Reserve	Bar		20 Front St	open
Venture Inn Bar	Bar		130 Jersey Ave	open
Village at Bruno's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	17 Front St	open
Wake Cup Wake Cup	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	45 Front St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	29	24	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	27	22	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	31	25	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1997	33	27	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	34	27	15	9	3	5	NAICS1997
1999	33	26	15	9	2	5	NAICS1997
2000	34	27	16	9	2	5	NAICS1997
2001	31	25	15	8	2	4	NAICS1997
2002	33	27	16	8	3	3	NAICS1997
2003	37	30	19	9	2	3	NAICS2002
2004	32	28	17	9	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	34	29	17	11	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	36	31	16	11	4	3	NAICS2002
2007	35	31	14	11	6	2	NAICS2002
2008	35	30	13	13	4	3	NAICS2007
2009	36	31	12	13	6	3	NAICS2007
2010	37	31	12	12	7	3	NAICS2007
2011	37	31	14	13	4	3	NAICS2007
2012	31	26	11	12	3	3	NAICS2012
2013	30	24	13	8	3	3	NAICS2012
2014	29	23	12	8	3	3	NAICS2012
2015	28	23	13	7	3	3	NAICS2012
2016	33	26	15	7	4	3	NAICS2012
2017	33	26	16	6	4	3	NAICS2017
2018	36	31	20	6	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	41	36	20	7	8	—	NAICS2017
2020	35	29	15	6	7	—	NAICS2017
2021	33	28	13	7	8	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	29	15	6	8	—	NAICS2022
2023	34	29	15	7	7	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12771. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12746	4.6 mi	1	2008

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.