BMIE Market 12790

Sullivan County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,537 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±597 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,001 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±260 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,518 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,048 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,193 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,683 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,443 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±156 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$208,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,410 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	51.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12790
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 3–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	64 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12790. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.09, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.1	60	40%	+24.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.8	58	35%	+20.2
Market Momentum Score	64.0	64	25%	+16.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,537	59	40%	+23.5
Median household income (ACS)	79,193	61	40%	+24.4
Households (ACS)	2,001	61	20%	+12.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.4	51	25%	+12.8
Population (ACS)	4,537	59	20%	+11.8
Median household income (ACS)	79,193	61	20%	+12.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	16.7	75	50%	+37.3
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 5 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Asian 2 · Coffee 2 · Chinese 1 · Greek 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Casual dining 4 · Food truck 3 · Quick service 3 · Bar 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Archie’s Place	Casual dining · Bar	American	395 N Shore Dr	open
Bashakill Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		1131 South Rd	open
Catskill Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Food truck		Route 209	open
Custer's Last Stand	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	178 Kingston Ave	open
Danny's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	178 Kingston Ave	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	159 Kingston Ave	open
Funny 75	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	9339 W Lake Dr ## A	open
Giovanni's Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood · Pizza	2433 US-209	open
Gotta Luv It Pizzeria and Sandwich Shop	Quick service	Italian · Pizza	187 Kingston Ave	open
Las Mañanitas Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	158 Sullivan St	open
Layla's Breakfast & Lunch	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	120 Sullivan St	open
Ming Moon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	187 Kingston Ave	open
Pasta D'oro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	90 Sullivan St	open
Pizza House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	60 Sullivan St	open
The Red Dot Vegetarian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	106 Sullivan St	open
Willy's Hot Dogs	Food truck · Quick service	Hot dogs	Exit 114 Mamakating rd ( next to exit 114 NY-17)	open
Wurtsboro Diner and Cafe	Casual dining	American · Greek	60 Sullivan St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	5	4	3	—	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	5	4	3	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	4	3	—	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	9	6	5	—	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	6	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	8	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	9	9	3	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	2	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12790. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12785	3.2 mi	1	2016
12781	4.5 mi	1	2006
12775	4.9 mi	5	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.