BMIE Market 12814

Warren County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,168 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±241 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	681 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±153 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,574 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,822 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$104,489 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,811 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	57.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,083 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±443 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$247,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±105,236 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	45.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12814
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	89.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+7.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+15.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 14–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.15) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	42 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	37 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	27 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12814. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.15, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.8	56	40%	+22.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36.7	37	35%	+12.9
Market Momentum Score	26.8	27	25%	+6.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,168	35	40%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	104,489	84	40%	+33.5
Households (ACS)	681	42	20%	+8.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	128.4	3	25%	+0.8
Population (ACS)	1,168	35	20%	+7.0
Median household income (ACS)	104,489	84	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.8	17	50%	+8.7
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	7.1	38	20%	+7.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

American 11 · Coffee 4 · Breakfast 3 · Italian 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Seafood 2 · Bakery 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 9 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
32 Mile Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American		open
Adirondack Winery Tasting Room II	Winery / distillery / taproom		4971 LakeShore Drive	open
Algonquin Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	4770 Lake Shore Dr	open
American Oak Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		209 New Vermont Rd	open
American Oak Distillery Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		4941 Lakeshore Dr	open
Bear's Cup Bakehouse	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	4973 Lake Shore Dr	open
Ben & Jerry's - Seasonal	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4950 State Route 9 N	open
Beyond the Sea	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	4957 Lake Shore Dr, Bolton Landing, NY 12814, United States	open
Bolton Landing Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		4933 Lake Shore Dr	open
Caldwell's Lobby Bar	Bar		110 Sagamore Rd	open
Cantina 32	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4595 Lake Shore Dr	open
Cate's Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4950 Lakeshore Dr	open
Cate's Italian Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	4952 Lake Shore Dr	open
Country Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	4959 Lakeshore Dr	open
Forest Hill Trading Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	4941 Lake Shore Dr	open
Frederick's Restaurant and Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4970 Lakeshore Dr	open
Hen and Chickens Islands	Bar	Chicken / wings		open
La Bella Vita - The Sagamore Resort	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	Seafood · Italian · American · European	110 Sagamore Rd	open
Marketplace Steakhouse & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	4957 Lake Shore Dr	open
Mrs. Whizzy Fizz Popp's Candy	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	4938 Lake Shore Dr	open
Neuffer's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	4923 Lake Shore Dr	open
Sunrise Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	8 Sagamore Rd	open
Tavern on the Lake	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4436 Lake Shore Dr	open
The Barrel	Bar · Casual dining		4571 Lake Shore Dr	open
The Brass Ring	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4934 Lakeshore Dr	open
The Chateau On The Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	15 Allens Alley	open
The Gem	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4983 Lake Shore Dr	open
The Huddle Kitchen & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		4947 Lakeshore Dr	open
The Shack at Bolton Landing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	4944 Lake Shore Dr	open
The Sunshine Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4967 Lake Shore Dr	open
Trailhead Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	4973 Lake Shore Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	15	12	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	14	11	11	—	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	15	11	10	1	—	4	NAICS1997
2000	16	13	12	—	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	16	12	11	—	1	4	NAICS1997
2002	19	15	14	—	1	4	NAICS1997
2003	17	14	13	1	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	15	12	11	1	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	12	9	9	—	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	7	—	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	8	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	7	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	12	12	10	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	14	11	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	12	12	10	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	15	14	12	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	16	15	12	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	15	14	11	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	9	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	17	16	11	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	17	16	10	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	17	12	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	15	9	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	15	10	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	16	11	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	16	11	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	15	11	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12814. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.