BMIE Market 12831

Saratoga County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,025 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,156 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,378 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±467 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,416 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,748 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$100,024 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,433 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,328 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±120 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$343,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,883 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	65.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12831
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-15.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-31.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-42.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.86) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	20 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12831. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.86, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	80.3	80	40%	+32.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.5	58	35%	+20.1
Market Momentum Score	20.0	20	25%	+5.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,025	80	40%	+31.8
Median household income (ACS)	100,024	81	40%	+32.4
Households (ACS)	7,378	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-31.3	10	35%	+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.1	88	25%	+21.9
Population (ACS)	18,025	80	20%	+15.9
Median household income (ACS)	100,024	81	20%	+16.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 20 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-15.4	15	50%	+7.6
10-year restaurant growth	-31.3	10	30%	+3.0
20-year restaurant growth	22.2	47	20%	+9.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (18)

By cuisine

American 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Bakery 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · European 1 · French 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Casual dining 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1311 Pizza Shack Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Pizza	1338 Saratoga Rd Unit E	open
Big Tony's at the Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		605 Old Saratoga Rd	open
Cannone's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	654 Saratoga Rd	open
Chez Pierre	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French · European	Saratoga Rd	open
Compadres Diner	Casual dining	American · Mexican	666 Saratoga Rd	open
Dancing Grain Farm Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		180 Old West Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1295 Saratoga Rd	open
Greenfields Greatest Food Co Home of Sundaes Best Hot Fudge Sauce	Dessert	Dessert	23 Northern Pines Road, Building # 2 Suite 2102, Firs	open
Holy Moses Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		847 Saratoga Rd	open
Salvato’s Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	450 Brownville Rd	open
Saratoga Bars	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		24D Adirondack Cir	open
Sergio's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	707 Saratoga Rd	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1284 St Rt 9, Exit 17N	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	624 Maple Ave	open
Tankards tavern	Bar		450 Brownville Rd	open
The Wishing Well	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	745 Saratoga Rd	open
Whiskey Ridge Sourdough	Bakery	Bakery	532 Selfridge Rd	open
Christina's Pizzeria Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	654 Saratoga Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	22	19	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	20	18	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	19	16	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	18	16	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	16	14	8	6	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	14	12	6	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	17	15	8	7	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	16	14	8	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	11	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	13	12	6	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	11	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	6	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	7	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	6	8	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	18	16	8	7	1	2	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	6	8	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	19	17	10	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	16	15	9	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	14	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12831. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.