BMIE Market 12885

Warren County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,444 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±159 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,218 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±217 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,602 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,463 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$59,429 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,244 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$905 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±54 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$169,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,070 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	80.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12885
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	26.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+30.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	42 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	35 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	44 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12885. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.4	47	40%	+18.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	34.9	35	35%	+12.2
Market Momentum Score	43.5	44	25%	+10.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,444	58	40%	+23.4
Median household income (ACS)	59,429	29	40%	+11.5
Households (ACS)	2,218	63	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	29.3	21	25%	+5.2
Population (ACS)	4,444	58	20%	+11.7
Median household income (ACS)	59,429	29	20%	+5.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	44.4	61	20%	+12.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 7 · Sandwiches 5 · Italian 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Casual dining 5 · Quick service 5 · Bar 4 · Specialty food shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ashes Pub & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		85 Hudson St	open
Bandstand Brew Works	Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar		3922 Main St	open
Belle Dolci	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3913 Main St	open
Bill's Restaurant	Casual dining	American	3915 Main St	open
Canepa’s Pizza Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3918 Main St	open
Deli & Meat Store of the North	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3872 Main St	open
Dragon Lee	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3740 Main St	open
George Henry's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		3735 Main St	open
Graces Restaurant and Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3 Hudson St	open
Harrington And Sons Inc Dba	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3982 Main St	open
J Gallup Farm	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	3916 Main St	open
Lizzie Keays Kitchen and Cocktails	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	89 River St	open
Luck E Star Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3982 Main St	open
Mark's Hometown'cue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	3951 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3632 Main Street	open
New Way Lunch New Way Lunch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · Sandwiches · American	3748 Main St	open
Ocho Cinco Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	85 Hudson St	open
Oscar's Smokehouse	Specialty food shop · Quick service	BBQ · Steakhouse · Sandwiches	22 Raymond Ln	open
Spirits Tavern & Italian American Restaurant	Bar	Italian · American	222 River St	open
Spirits Tavern Italian American Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian		open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	Main St. & Emerson Ave.	open
Sun Canyon Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3685 Main St	open
The Bond 1786	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3 Hudson St	open
The Grist Mill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 River St	open
The Guac Box	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3915 Main St	open
The Pizza Shop Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3918 Main St	open
Tommy Guns Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3747 Main St	open
Sulla Terra	Bakery	Bakery	3749 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	14	12	7	4	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	12	11	8	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	7	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	10	6	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	6	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	13	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	14	13	7	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	9	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	12	8	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	14	8	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	15	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	16	13	7	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	16	14	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12885. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.