BMIE Market 12944

Essex County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,910 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±644 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,467 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±210 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,080 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,151 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$72,207 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,643 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,091 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±90 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$141,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,024 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	91.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 12944
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-55.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-63.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 1–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.48) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	11 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 12944. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.48, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.0	54	40%	+21.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.0	44	35%	+15.4
Market Momentum Score	11.1	11	25%	+2.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,910	57	40%	+22.6
Median household income (ACS)	72,207	51	40%	+20.2
Households (ACS)	1,467	56	20%	+11.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	35%	+4.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.2	71	25%	+17.8
Population (ACS)	3,910	57	20%	+11.3
Median household income (ACS)	72,207	51	20%	+10.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	30%	+4.1
20-year restaurant growth	-55.6	2	20%	+0.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

Pizza 4 · American 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Casual dining 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ausable Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		765 Mace Chasm Rd	open
Fresh & Fancy Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1717 Front St	open
Fresh & Fancy Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1717 Front St	open
GiGi's on the River	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1878 US-9	open
Giuseppes Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1711 Front St	open
Highlands Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1092 Highland Rd	open
Keeseville Pizza & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1736 Front St	open
Mac's Ice Cream Parlor & Diner	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	75 Chesterfield St	open
Mclean's Family Restaurant	Casual dining	American	1843 Route 9	open
Mussenville Bar&grill	Bar · Casual dining		626 Highland Rd	open
Papa's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1711 Front St	open
Pleasant Corner Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	262 State Hwy 9N	open
Taco Temptation	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1711 Front St	open
The North Country Club Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1790 rt 22	open
Village Roast Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1725 Front St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	12	10	8	1	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	10	8	6	1	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	9	7	5	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	8	5	4	1	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	9	7	6	—	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	7	—	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	8	5	4	—	1	3	NAICS2002
2005	9	6	5	—	1	3	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	4	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	5	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	5	—	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 12944. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
12924	4.1 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.