BMIE Market 13165

Seneca County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,458 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±456 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,355 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±219 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,741 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,640 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$59,981 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,988 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$929 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$121,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,996 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	68.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 13165
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	24.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-8.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 13–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.7 per year, r² 0.70) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	37 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 13165. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.70, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	54.2	54	40%	+21.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33.3	33	35%	+11.7
Market Momentum Score	16.3	16	25%	+4.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,458	70	40%	+28.0
Median household income (ACS)	59,981	30	40%	+11.8
Households (ACS)	4,355	72	20%	+14.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16	16	35%	+5.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.2	32	25%	+8.0
Population (ACS)	9,458	70	20%	+14.0
Median household income (ACS)	59,981	30	20%	+5.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	50%	+8.5
10-year restaurant growth	-16	16	30%	+4.7
20-year restaurant growth	-12.5	16	20%	+3.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (62)

By cuisine

American 11 · Sandwiches 6 · Coffee 5 · Italian 4 · Burgers 3 · Chinese 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Dessert 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 39 · Bar 16 · Casual dining 13 · Quick service 10 · Dessert 5 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
13 Sip and Slice	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	655 NY-318	open
Abigails Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1978 New York 5	open
Amy's Checkered Flag	Bar	American	29 W Main St	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	655 State Route 318 #31A	open
Ashley Lynn Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		827 RT-318	open
Asian Buffet 318, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		678 State Route 318	open
Bad Burro Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	424 Waterloo Geneva Rd	open
Bella's Seneca Lake Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)		369 Waterloo Geneva Rd	open
Byrne Dairy and Deli Byrne Dairy	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	353 Waterloo Geneva Rd	open
Byrne Dairy and Deli Byrne Dairy	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1344 NY-414	open
Centrifico	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	Mexican	1133 State Route 414	open
Ciccino's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	22 E Main St	open
Ciccinos Lago	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet		1133 State Route 414	open
Connie's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	205 E Main St	open
Del Lago VIP Lounge at the Vine	Bar			open
Dog House Tavern	Bar		327 Border City Rd	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	1781 New York 318	open
Emile's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	369 Waterloo Geneva Rd	open
F-n-A Rhythm and Booze	Bar · Casual dining		3 S Virginia St	open
Finger Lakes Candy Emporium	Dessert		655 State Route 318 Ste 38	open
Finger Lakes Tea Company	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee · Chinese	678 State Route 318	open
Harry's Place	Bar		23 W Main St	open
High Limit Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1133 State Route 414	open
Iron Skillet Iron Skillet	Casual dining	American	1255 State Route 414	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2430 Route 414	open
La Fiesta Brava Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	9 E Main St	open
Lizard's Tailgator Lounge	Bar		40 Church St	open
Mac's Drive-in	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1166 Waterloo Geneva Rd	open
Magee Country Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1303 NY-414	open
Margarita’s Latin Soul Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Spanish / tapas · Latin American (other) · Cajun, Creole, Southern	655 NY-318	open
Mark's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1963 Kingdom Plz	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2500 Mound Rd	open
Miss V's	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 E Main St	open
Mojo's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		23 W Main St	open
Monterrey Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1303 NY-414	open
New China Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1963 US Route 20 #4	open
New First Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	5 E Main St	open
Our Heritage Cafe	Café	Coffee	2468 Route 414	open
Pats pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		60 N Walnut St	open
Peppy's Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	379 Waterloo Geneva Rd	open
Peppy's Too	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	365 E Main St	open
Petro Waterloo Ny	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Simply Homemade	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2194 Yellow Tavern Rd	open
Smashburger	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1133 Route 414	open
Star Diner Star Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1111 Waterloo Geneva Rd	open
Starr's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	7 E Main St	open
Steak and Potato	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	655 NY-318	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	1262 Route 414, Love's Travel Stop, #820	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1262 Route 414	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1860 N Rd	open
Sun Garden Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)		655 State Route 318 Ste 93	open
TCBY TCBY	Dessert · Bar	Dessert	665 Route 318 A025B, Waterloo, NY, 14456	open
TCBY, Mrs. Fields, Pretzelmaker	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	Waterloo Premium Outlets, 655 NY-318	open
The Green Apple	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	19 W Main St	open
Tiki Bar @ Stivers Seneca Marine	Bar · Casual dining		Booty Hill Rd	open
Tucci's Family Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	339 Waterloo Geneva Rd	open
Waterloo Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	5 W Main St	open
Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1262 Route 414, Ste B	open
Woody's Bar and Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2468 NY-414	open
Zago’s Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza		open
Bg’s Italian Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		369 Waterloo Geneva Rd	closed
Riverpark Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1314 Waterloo Geneva Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	26	23	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	23	21	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	29	24	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1997	33	29	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	30	26	11	14	1	4	NAICS1997
1999	30	26	12	13	1	4	NAICS1997
2000	29	23	9	13	1	5	NAICS1997
2001	26	22	9	12	1	4	NAICS1997
2002	29	24	8	14	2	4	NAICS1997
2003	28	24	9	13	1	3	NAICS2002
2004	29	26	10	14	1	3	NAICS2002
2005	27	24	11	12	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	26	22	9	13	—	4	NAICS2002
2007	30	25	12	11	2	5	NAICS2002
2008	26	22	13	8	1	4	NAICS2007
2009	29	25	14	11	—	4	NAICS2007
2010	31	26	15	11	—	4	NAICS2007
2011	25	22	13	9	—	3	NAICS2007
2012	26	22	13	9	—	3	NAICS2012
2013	28	25	15	9	1	3	NAICS2012
2014	30	28	16	10	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	28	26	17	9	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	27	24	13	11	—	3	NAICS2012
2017	27	24	14	10	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	28	24	15	9	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	27	24	13	11	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	26	23	9	12	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	21	18	9	8	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	23	20	11	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	21	10	11	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 13165. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.