BMIE Market 13408

Madison County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,391 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±343 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	793 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±124 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,280 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,188 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$68,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,570 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	21.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$876 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$178,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,793 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	34.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 13408
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	21.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-12.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 5–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.22) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	35 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 13408. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.22, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.7	49	40%	+19.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	34.7	35	35%	+12.1
Market Momentum Score	34.7	35	25%	+8.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,391	54	40%	+21.7
Median household income (ACS)	68,750	45	40%	+18.0
Households (ACS)	793	45	20%	+9.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	35%	+5.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.6	36	25%	+8.9
Population (ACS)	3,391	54	20%	+10.8
Median household income (ACS)	68,750	45	20%	+9.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	30%	+5.1
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (11)

By cuisine

American 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 6 · Bar 4 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Quick service 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Annie's Sweets & Treats	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Dessert	10 Main St	open
Corral	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		44 W Main St	open
Deli On the Green	Specialty food shop · Quick service · Bar	Sandwiches	4571 Peterboro Rd	open
Emmy Lou’s Cafe INC	Café · Dessert	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Breakfast	37 W Main St	open
Hunan Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25 E Main St	open
New York Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	28 Main St	open
Smooth Jazzy Joz	Coffee shop · Café	American · Coffee	80 Eaton St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	25 East Main Street	open
The Corral	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	44 Main St	open
The Fort	Casual dining · Bar	American	97 Main St	open
The Purple Salamander	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10 Main Street	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	12	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	8	2	2	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	10	4	4	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	11	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	9	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	6	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	12	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	12	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 13408. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
13134	3.5 mi	—
13484	4.5 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.