BMIE Market 13602

Jefferson County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,440 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±181 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,881 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	120 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	Data source not yet connected
Median age	22.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±0 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	Data source not yet connected
Land area	11.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	Not published for this ZIP 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 13602
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2015 → 2020, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2010 → 2020, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2025	6 (range 4–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2010–2020 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.38) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	33 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	38 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 13602. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2010–2020, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.38, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	32.8	33	40%	+13.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.8	68	35%	+23.7
Market Momentum Score	37.5	38	25%	+9.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 33 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,440	49	40%	+32.3
Households (ACS)	0	1	20%	+0.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+36.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.3	63	25%	+19.8
Population (ACS)	2,440	49	20%	+12.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 38 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+6.7
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+30.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

Sandwiches 6 · Coffee 5 · American 4 · Dessert 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Quick service 11 · Café 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Casual dining 2 · Bar 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
10th CAB Freedom Fighter's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	Bagram Road	open
Arby's	Quick service		10730 Enduring Freedom Drive, Fort Drum, NY 13602, United States	open
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	10730 Enduring Freedom Drive	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American		open
Buster's Brew Pub	Casual dining · Bar		Bldg P-4350 2nd St.	open
Charley's Grilled Subs Charleys Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	P2300 Nash Blvd	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	N Riva Ridge Loop Bldg P	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee	Mt Belvedere Ave Building P10720 Clark, H	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	10730 Memorial Dr	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	10207 N Riva Ridge Loop Jack T Sweet C Omplex	open
Exchange Food Court	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		p10730a, Enduring Freedom Dr	open
Flight Line Warrior Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20350 Bagram Road\nFort Drum, NY 13602, United States	open
Ice Cream Alley at Fort Drum	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10730A Enduring Freedom Dr	open
O-HO Boba Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	10730 A Enduring Freedom Dr	open
Popeyes Popeyes	Quick service		(Military Post Access Required) Bldg P4230 - P O Valley Rd	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	4230 Po Valley Rd	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	(military Post Access Required) Bldg P4230-P O V	open
Qdoba Qdoba	Quick service		Enduring Freedom Dr	open
Qdoba Mexican Grill Qdoba	Quick service · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Mexican · Bakery · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Sandwiches · Coffee	Enduring Freedom Dr Fort Drum	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	10730 Memorial Dr B	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	4230 Po Valley Rd, Bldg P4230	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	Building 10730 A/B, Post Exchange Food court	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	N Riva Ridge Loop, Bldg 10207	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2002	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	3	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	3	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	5	5	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	5	5	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2023	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 13602. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
13643	2.0 mi	2	2016
13638	2.1 mi	1	2016
13603	3.0 mi	1	2009
13628	3.4 mi	1	1997
13612	4.6 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.