BMIE Market 13637

Jefferson County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,212 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±590 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,240 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±240 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,491 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,832 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$57,103 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,942 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	24.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,337 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±44 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$176,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,080 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 13637
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	26.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+157.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+157.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 11–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	34 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	67 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 13637. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	46.9	47	40%	+18.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33.5	34	35%	+11.7
Market Momentum Score	67.1	67	25%	+16.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,212	61	40%	+24.4
Median household income (ACS)	57,103	25	40%	+9.9
Households (ACS)	2,240	63	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	34.5	16	25%	+4.1
Population (ACS)	5,212	61	20%	+12.2
Median household income (ACS)	57,103	25	20%	+5.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	157.1	89	20%	+17.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

American 4 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Japanese 1 · Sushi 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 12 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Coffee shop 2 · Bar 1 · Buffet 1 · Casual dining 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Auntie Anne's	Bakery	Bakery	25857 US Route 11	open
Buffalo Wild Wings 'GO'	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	26000 US-11, Ste 1	open
Carvel	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	26455 Johnson Rd	open
Cicis - Closed	Restaurant (service type not stated)		26185 US Route 11 Unit 4	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	26475 Johnson Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	26370 US Route 11	open
Grand Buffet of Leray Inc	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)		26437 Johnson Rd	open
Heavenly Pie, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		26000 US Route 11	open
Hog Wild BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	8727 Noble St	open
Homemadehaven Homestead	Bakery	Bakery	25240 Waddingham Rd	open
John Hoover Inn	Bar · Casual dining		8497 S Main St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	26720 US Route 11	open
L&L Hawaiian Barbecue L&L Hawaiian BBQ - Vancouver	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Hawaiian / Pacific	26390 US-11	open
Last Call Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8700 Noble St	open
Leray Beef, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25495 US Route 11	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	26461 Johnson Rd	open
Los Amigos Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	26000 US Route 11	open
New Panda Wok Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		26000 US Route 11	open
Pan De Vida Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	8727 Noble St	open
Papa John's Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	26000 US Route 11	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	27216 Patriot Pl	open
Ruyi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	26121 US Route 11	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	26121 US Route 11	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	25857 NY State Rt11	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	26462 Herrick Dr	open
Thai Cuisine Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	26390 US-11	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	25744 US-11	open
Tj Cinnamons Arby's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	25495 US Route 11	open
Wayback Burgers Wayback Burgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	26455 Johnson Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	26586 Valentine Dr.	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	5	4	1	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	11	4	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	2	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	3	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	3	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	4	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	4	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	18	5	11	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	5	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	16	3	11	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	17	4	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	19	18	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	5	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	17	5	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	18	5	11	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 13637. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.