BMIE Market 14001

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,937 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±341 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,085 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±265 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,464 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,254 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,107 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,386 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	52.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$766 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±131 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$232,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,055 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	64.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14001
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 15–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	49 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14001. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	64.0	64	40%	+25.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.6	59	35%	+20.5
Market Momentum Score	49.0	49	25%	+12.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,937	69	40%	+27.6
Median household income (ACS)	75,107	55	40%	+22.1
Households (ACS)	4,085	71	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	35%	+23.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.9	43	25%	+10.8
Population (ACS)	8,937	69	20%	+13.8
Median household income (ACS)	75,107	55	20%	+11.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	30%	+19.7
20-year restaurant growth	14.3	42	20%	+8.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

American 6 · Bakery 4 · Italian 4 · Pizza 4 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Casual dining 8 · Bar 7 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Akron Ale House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	15 Main St	open
Akron China King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	65 Main St	open
Akron Hometown Pastry Shoppe	Café	Coffee	47 Main St	open
Big Chief BBQ and Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	199 East Ave	open
Bistro 93	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	15 Cedar St	open
Border Line Bar	Bar		11825 Main Rd	open
C.C.’s Heroes Tap & Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		11986 Main St	open
Candy Apple Cafe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	81 Buell St	open
Cipollina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	6 Clinton St	open
Fat Sal's Pub & Eatery	Casual dining · Bar		11986 Main Rd	open
Frosted WNY Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	26 Monroe St	open
Georgie's Pizzeria Prince O' Pie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	11891 Main Rd	open
Gregarios Gator Pub	Bar		13493 Genesee Street	open
Guy's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	6 Clinton St	open
Kaboodles Kafe'	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13677 Main St	open
Luscious Bake Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	11273 Rapids Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	12976 Main St	open
Old Scotland Road Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		7010 Scotland Rd	open
Perry's Ice Cream Co Inc.	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1 Ice Cream Plaza	open
Pizzabella's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	66 Main St	open
Pw's Main Street Pub	Casual dining · Bar		11986 Main Rd	open
Sweet Lisa	Dessert · Food truck · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	13032 Genesee St	open
Tc-3, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36 Main St	open
The Filler	Bar · Casual dining		40 Main St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	12950 Main St	open
Tony's Pizza Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	36 Main St	open
Wolcottsville Inn LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	6327 Wolcottsville Rd	open
Yogi's Brick Oven Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	15 Main St	open
Famous Dukes Bar & Grill	Bar		12221 Main Rd	closed
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	13015 Main Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	13	9	4	4	1	4	NAICS1997
1999	14	10	4	5	1	4	NAICS1997
2000	14	9	4	4	1	4	NAICS1997
2001	14	9	4	3	2	4	NAICS1997
2002	15	10	5	5	—	4	NAICS1997
2003	19	14	8	5	1	4	NAICS2002
2004	17	12	7	4	1	4	NAICS2002
2005	16	11	7	3	1	4	NAICS2002
2006	15	10	6	4	—	4	NAICS2002
2007	15	11	7	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	17	12	8	4	—	4	NAICS2007
2009	16	12	7	5	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	18	13	7	6	—	4	NAICS2007
2011	18	15	7	7	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	20	17	10	6	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	16	13	8	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	18	14	9	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	19	15	9	6	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	23	19	12	7	—	3	NAICS2012
2017	19	16	12	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	19	16	11	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	15	11	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	16	11	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	11	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	17	13	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	16	12	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14001. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.