BMIE Market 14004

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,396 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±500 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,122 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±252 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,704 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,290 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$90,839 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,456 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$938 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$258,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,742 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	48.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14004
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+5.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+61.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 21–26) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.35) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	73 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14004. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.35, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.9	73	40%	+29.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.1	57	35%	+20.0
Market Momentum Score	54.3	54	25%	+13.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,396	73	40%	+29.1
Median household income (ACS)	90,839	74	40%	+29.6
Households (ACS)	4,122	71	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	5	50	35%	+17.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.4	41	25%	+10.4
Population (ACS)	11,396	73	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	90,839	74	20%	+14.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5	61	50%	+30.7
10-year restaurant growth	5	50	30%	+14.9
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 10 · Pizza 7 · Coffee 5 · Italian 4 · Asian 3 · Burgers 3 · Chinese 3 · Bakery 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Sandwiches 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mediterranean 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Fast casual 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alden Bakery & Cafe	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	13256 Broadway	open
Alden Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11615 Clinton St	open
Biggz Bar & Brew House	Bar · Brewery / taproom		Westwood Rd	open
Black Water Tavern & Tap	Casual dining · Bar	American	12443 Broadway	open
Brownie’s Pizza Post, INC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	12643 Williston Rd	open
Carbone's Pizzeria Carbone's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13114 Broadway	open
Darrow's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Chicken / wings	13192 Broadway St	open
GDI Countryside Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · German / Eastern European	2049 Sandridge Rd	open
Geoffanos Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	12517 Broadway	open
Henry's Candy & Gifts	Dessert		13237 Broadway St	open
John & Mary's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	13485 Broadway St	open
LaPaloma Pizzeria	Fast casual · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Healthy / salads / bowls	13268 Broadway St	open
Lucky Panda Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	13123 Broadway	open
LunchBox Cafe and Catering	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee	11660 Genesee St	open
MaGavin's Restaurant & Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	12443 Broadway St	open
Marie's Family Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	13193 Broadway	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	12755 Broadway	open
Nana's Mediterranean	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	12775 Broadway St	open
Papa's Pizza Oven Alden Papa’s Pizza Oven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13268 Broadway	open
Parkside Cupcakes	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1470 Church St	open
Sandella's Flatbread Cafe	Quick service · Other · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Coffee · Burgers	NYS Thruway I-90 (MM 447)	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	12765 Broadway St	open
The Buffalo Pit (BBQ Catering)	Catering	BBQ · American	12974 Clinton St	open
The Miller House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	12701 Broadway	open
The Pink Cow Ice Cream Shop & Momma Cow's Treat Emporium	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	13119 Broadway	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	12886 Broadway St	open
Tin Chi House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	12775 Broadway St	open
TIN-CHI HOUSE INC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	12073 Broadway	open
Town Line Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	11048 Broadway	open
Valleyview Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	13493 Genesee St	open
West Alden Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	12463 Broadway St	open
Whistle Stop Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1338 Exchange St	open
Damn Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	13268 Broadway St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	13	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	18	16	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	19	16	9	6	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	17	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	17	13	7	5	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	16	11	6	4	1	4	NAICS1997
2002	22	18	10	5	3	3	NAICS1997
2003	21	18	13	4	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	18	16	11	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	19	17	12	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	20	18	9	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	22	20	10	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	23	21	8	12	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	20	18	7	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	18	16	7	8	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	19	17	6	9	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	20	20	6	11	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	20	20	7	10	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	20	20	9	9	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	18	8	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	21	19	9	8	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	20	19	9	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	21	20	9	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	24	23	11	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	19	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	23	22	9	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	23	10	10	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	21	9	9	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14004. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14102	4.2 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.