BMIE Market 14031

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,885 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±852 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,202 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±418 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,392 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,854 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,750 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,586 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$947 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±174 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$343,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,277 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14031
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+31.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+5.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 23–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.82) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	61 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14031. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.82, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.9	76	40%	+30.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.4	64	35%	+22.6
Market Momentum Score	61.2	61	25%	+15.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,885	71	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	103,750	83	40%	+33.3
Households (ACS)	4,202	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	31.3	72	35%	+25.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	21.2	34	25%	+8.6
Population (ACS)	9,885	71	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	103,750	83	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10.5	68	50%	+34.1
10-year restaurant growth	31.3	72	30%	+21.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (50)

By cuisine

American 11 · Coffee 10 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 5 · Italian 4 · Sandwiches 3 · Asian 2 · Breakfast 2 · Burgers 2 · Greek 2 · Pizza 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Mexican 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Dessert 10 · Coffee shop 9 · Bakery 8 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 7 · Café 6 · Quick service 6 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Bee’s Bounty Farm	Bakery	Bakery	4370 Ransom Rd	open
Babycakes Cupcakery	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	9520 Main St #100	open
Bubbaloos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	11661 Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	4002 Ransom Rd	open
Clarence Country Doughnuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	10446 Main St	open
Clarence Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	10633 Main St	open
Clarence Grille	Bar		10250 Main St	open
Clarence Hollow	Bar			open
Cozy Cafe	Casual dining		9060 Main St	open
Craft Roasting Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	10853 Jones Rd	open
Cuppa Culture's TEApourium	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	10255 Main St, Shisler Rd Suite 11	open
Curtis Taylor Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10651 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	4002 Ransom Road	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	9430 Main St	open
El Ranchito Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	9780 Main St	open
Fresheez	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9560 Main St	open
Gianni Mazia's on Main	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Italian · Hot dogs · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	10325 Main St	open
Goodrich Coffee & Tea	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	9450 Main St	open
Humbert House	Casual dining · Bar	American	10622 Main St	open
Kennedy's Cove	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	9800 Main St	open
Main Street Pizza Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	10971 Main St	open
McDuffies Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	9920 Main St	open
Melymel Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	9393 Main St	open
Mister Sizzle's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Burgers · American	10737 Main St	open
Morluski's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	10678 Main St	open
Murphy Brown's Craft Beer Empourium	Bar · Casual dining		9500 Main St #100	open
My Big Fat Greek Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	10225 Main St	open
Nana's Mediterranean	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern · Greek	9560 Main St	open
Orazio's by Zarcone Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	9415 Main St	open
Palace of Sweets	Dessert	Dessert	9400 Main St Ste 1	open
Pearl Lanka Sri Lankan Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Indian	9580 Main St	open
Penny Lane	Bar	American	10255 Main St	open
Pop-in-Bob's Kettle Corn	Food truck · Quick service · Dessert		11072 Main St	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Wb Mile 412	open
Prominent Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	9135 Sheridan Dr	open
Shalooby Loofer Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		10737 Main St	open
Sky's The Limit J.b.c. Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9220 Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	9430 Main St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	10440 Main St	open
The Cornerstone Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10651 Main St	open
The Hollow Bistro & Brew	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Asian	10641 Main St	open
The Main Ingredient	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	9980 Main St	open
The Wandering Cup of Clarence	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	10440 Main St	open
This Little Pig	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	10651 Main St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	9220 Main St	open
Tim Hortons	Quick service · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Coffee	4002 Ransom Rd	open
Tony Rome's Coachman's Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10350 Main St	open
Topico Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	10250 Main St	open
West Shore Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom		10995 Main St	open
Campfire Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	9980 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	20	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	17	17	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	23	22	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	20	16	8	7	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	21	17	9	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	22	18	9	8	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	25	19	8	9	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	21	17	10	6	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	24	21	10	11	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	22	18	9	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	24	21	11	10	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	27	24	13	11	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	21	19	12	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	22	19	11	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	24	20	10	9	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	20	17	8	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	18	16	7	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	20	17	9	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2013	18	16	8	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	19	17	8	4	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	23	17	8	4	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	24	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	25	19	12	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	25	19	12	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	25	19	12	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	28	23	13	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	25	21	13	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	25	21	11	6	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14031. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14032	4.4 mi	6	2023
14026	4.7 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.