BMIE Market 14048

Chautauqua County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,739 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±385 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,455 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±280 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,072 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,365 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$56,431 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,946 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$869 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±77 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$104,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,831 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	33 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14048
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+17.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+57.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	34 (range 31–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.57) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	68 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14048. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.57, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.7	56	40%	+22.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	50.7	51	35%	+17.7
Market Momentum Score	67.8	68	25%	+17.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,739	76	40%	+30.5
Median household income (ACS)	56,431	24	40%	+9.5
Households (ACS)	6,455	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	22.2	65	35%	+22.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.4	32	25%	+7.9
Population (ACS)	14,739	76	20%	+15.3
Median household income (ACS)	56,431	24	20%	+4.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	22.2	79	50%	+39.5
10-year restaurant growth	22.2	65	30%	+19.5
20-year restaurant growth	17.9	44	20%	+8.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (77)

By cuisine

American 14 · Pizza 9 · Sandwiches 6 · Coffee 5 · Mexican 5 · Dessert 4 · Asian 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Seafood 3 · Bakery 2 · Breakfast 2 · Caribbean 2 · Chinese 2 · German / Eastern European 2 · Greek 2 · BBQ 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 50 · Bar 21 · Casual dining 13 · Quick service 9 · Dessert 6 · Bakery 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
19 Lake Shore Drive East Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		19 Lake Shore Dr E	open
243 Cantina Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		296 Lake Shore Dr W	open
Allison’s Kitchen - Kozlowski Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		341 Lake Shore Dr E	open
Alma Latina Mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	75 E 5th St	open
Angry Bird BBQ LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	302 Lynx St	open
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3908 Vineyard Drive	open
Arctic Bite Dunkirk	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Asian · American	415 Central Ave	open
Arctic Bite Dunkirk	Restaurant (service type not stated)		415 Central Ave	open
Beach House Bar & Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	Wright Park Dr	open
Big Dipper Ice Cream Parlor Big Dipper Ice Cream Parlor	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	950 Central Ave	open
Blasdell Pizza Blasdell Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1170 Central Ave	open
Bob Evans Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3877 Vineyard Dr	open
Campi's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8 Central Ave	open
Catch 18 Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	16 Central Ave	open
Central Station Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Sandwiches	332 Central Ave	open
Chadwick Bay Coffee Company, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		92 Lake Shore Dr E	open
China King China King	Buffet	Chinese · Asian	1170 Central Ave	open
Daily Grind	Restaurant (service type not stated)		439 Brigham Rd	open
Demetri's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Breakfast	6 Lake Shore Dr W	open
Dennys	Casual dining · Quick service	American		open
Dimitri's Greek Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · German / Eastern European	Lakeshore Dr	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	10506 Bennett Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3929 Vineyard Dr	open
Dunkirk Boardwalk Market	Bar	Pizza	401 Central Ave	open
Dunkirk Express Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	81 E 5th St	open
Dunkirk Falcon Club Inc	Bar		80 E Benton St	open
Dunkirk Lakeside Club	Bar		Lake Shore Dr W	open
Dunkirk Moose Club	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		296 Lake Shore Dr W	open
Dupree's	Bar	American	201 Central Ave	open
El Azteca Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3962 Vineyard Dr	open
El Negocio Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		243 Lake Shore Dr E	open
El Rincon Criollo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	87 Lake Shore Dr E	open
Fieldbrook Farms Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1 Ice Cream Dr	open
Fillmore	Casual dining · Bar		221 Central Ave	open
Fireside Manor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5377 W Lake Rd	open
Healthy Plate Solutions	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegetarian	523 Main St	open
Holy Wong Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	174 E 4th St	open
House of Birria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	10 Central Ave	open
Jenna's 4th St Cafe	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	112 E 4th St	open
Jo Jo's Cake Cottage	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	11164 Urban Rd	open
Keoki's Pub	Bar		817 Main St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10517 Bennett Rd	open
Kosciuszko Polish Home	Bar	German / Eastern European	252 Nevins St	open
Lakeshore Grillworks Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	436 Lake Shore Dr E	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3969 Vineyard Dr SUITE 300	open
Marlene's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	40 E Doughty St	open
Mary's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Pizza · American	525 Main St	open
Merritt Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar			open
Mexico Lindo Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		243 Lake Shore Dr E	open
MexiG ST eats	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	19 Lake Shore Dr E	open
Nestle Purina	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3800 Middle Rd	open
Off The Hook	Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	16 Central Ave	open
P*DUBS PIZZA WINGS N' THINGS P-Dubs Brew Pub/Mountain Bowling	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches · Chicken / wings	404 Central Ave	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3962 Vineyard Drive	open
Pizza Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	71 Lake Shore Dr W	open
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	10506 Bennett Rd	open
Port of Dunkirk	Bar	Sandwiches	410 Central Ave	open
Ramos Tacos And More	Other	Sandwiches	10 Central Ave	open
Rookies on the Lake	Casual dining · Bar	American	19 Lake Shore Dr E	open
Shorty's Kitchen	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	45 Lake Shore Dr E	open
Shorty's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3962 Vineyard Dr	open
Shorty’s Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		131 Central Ave	open
Spike Dailey's	Bar	British / Irish pub food	18 Central Ave	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3969 Vineyard Dr	open
Steelbound Dunkirk Steelbound Brewery & Distillery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		30 Lake Shore Dr E	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3955 Vineyard Dr	open
Taqo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	436 Central Ave	open
Taqueria Mexicana Taqueria Taxco	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Casual dining	Mexican · Spanish / tapas · American	45 Lake Shore Dr E	open
The Hungry Hound	Restaurant (service type not stated)		252 Nevins St	open
The Spot On The Lake	Casual dining · Bar		19 Lake Shore Dr E	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Quick service · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3936 Vineyard Dr	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	92 Lake Shore Dr E	open
vibe on Five	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	19 Lake Shore Dr W	open
Wasted Walleye Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Waterfront Drive	open
White Village	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	5362 W Lake Rd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3955 Vineyard Dr	open
Manning's Fireside Manor	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5377 W Lake Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	25	21	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	22	20	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	25	23	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	23	19	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	30	22	12	9	1	5	NAICS1997
1999	30	23	13	9	1	4	NAICS1997
2000	32	25	13	10	2	4	NAICS1997
2001	30	24	13	10	1	4	NAICS1997
2002	31	26	15	9	1	3	NAICS1997
2003	32	28	15	10	—	3	NAICS2002
2004	31	27	16	9	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	28	25	15	8	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	26	22	15	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	28	24	16	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	26	21	12	8	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	26	21	11	8	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	30	25	12	10	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	32	26	13	13	—	3	NAICS2007
2012	33	27	14	13	—	3	NAICS2012
2013	33	27	13	13	1	3	NAICS2012
2014	34	28	14	13	1	3	NAICS2012
2015	34	28	12	14	2	3	NAICS2012
2016	32	26	12	13	1	3	NAICS2012
2017	33	28	12	14	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	32	27	13	12	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	33	28	14	13	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	35	30	14	15	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	37	32	14	16	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	35	29	10	17	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	41	33	15	16	—	5	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14048. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14135	3.6 mi	1	2012

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.