BMIE Market 14057

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,972 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±288 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,105 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±214 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,116 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,296 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$92,410 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,135 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$865 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±361 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$263,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±26,082 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	46.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14057
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	12 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14057. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70.6	71	40%	+28.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	51.4	51	35%	+18.0
Market Momentum Score	11.6	12	25%	+2.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,972	67	40%	+27.0
Median household income (ACS)	92,410	75	40%	+30.2
Households (ACS)	3,105	67	20%	+13.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	35%	+4.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.0	72	25%	+18.0
Population (ACS)	7,972	67	20%	+13.5
Median household income (ACS)	92,410	75	20%	+15.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 12 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	50%	+4.8
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	30%	+4.1
20-year restaurant growth	-20	14	20%	+2.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (19)

By cuisine

American 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Casual dining 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	Dairy Queen Ltd Brazier 8380 N Main St	open
East Eden Tavern & Smoke House	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	8163 E Eden Rd	open
Eat'sa Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8569 N Main St	open
Eden Ale House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8557 N Main St	open
Eden Seafood & Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Pizza · American	8530 N Main St	open
Four Corners Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	8571 N Main St	open
Munro Farmstand	Bakery	Bakery	7899 E Eden Rd	open
Newell Faulkner Post 880 Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2912 Legion Dr	open
Obriens Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8557 N Main St	open
Oriental King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	8566 N Main St	open
Our 2 Kids Enterprises, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3201 Cherry Ln	open
Pilot Light Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)		8557 N Main St	open
Rayzor's Dawg House	Quick service	Hot dogs · Burgers	8178 N Main St	open
Schunk's West Hill Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4274 Keller Rd	open
Smokeys Saloon	Bar		8557 N Main St	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	8151 N Main St	open
Sweet lil' Sweets 716	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	8561 N Main St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	8259 N Main St	open
Vfw Eden Memorial Post	Bar		2551 March Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	9	6	2	3	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	10	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	12	7	4	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	11	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	13	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	8	1	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	12	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	10	4	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	12	9	4	3	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	13	8	3	4	1	3	NAICS2007
2009	12	7	2	4	1	3	NAICS2007
2010	13	8	2	5	1	3	NAICS2007
2011	13	9	2	6	1	3	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	3	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	3	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	2	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	4	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	12	9	2	5	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	15	12	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	12	3	8	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	15	10	—	8	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	14	8	—	6	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14057. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14111	4.4 mi	3	2023
14112	4.9 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.