BMIE Market 14072

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	21,488 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,807 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,374 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,273 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$115,991 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,704 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,199 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±67 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$327,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,093 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	28.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	30 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14072
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-6.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+15.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	28 (range 25–31) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14072. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.2	85	40%	+34.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55.6	56	35%	+19.5
Market Momentum Score	38.9	39	25%	+9.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	21,488	83	40%	+33.0
Median household income (ACS)	115,991	89	40%	+35.6
Households (ACS)	8,807	83	20%	+16.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-6.3	20	35%	+7.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.0	57	25%	+14.2
Population (ACS)	21,488	83	20%	+16.5
Median household income (ACS)	115,991	89	20%	+17.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-6.3	20	30%	+6.1
20-year restaurant growth	42.9	60	20%	+12.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (62)

By cuisine

American 16 · Coffee 7 · Pizza 6 · Dessert 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Mexican 3 · Steakhouse 3 · Asian 2 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Seafood 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Japanese 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 39 · Bar 14 · Casual dining 12 · Quick service 9 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 6 · Coffee shop 5 · Café 4 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
773 North	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	2749 Grand Island Blvd	open
95 Nutrition Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2488 Grand Island Blvd	open
Alz Rootz	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Vegetarian	2154 Grand Island Blvd	open
Anderson's Frozen Custard Anderson's Main St, Williamsville	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · American	2352 Grand Island Blvd	open
Blackberry's Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2241 Grand Island Blvd	open
Bogey's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		2136 W Oakfield Rd	open
Brick Oven Pizzeria and Pub	Bar	Pizza · Italian	2457 Grand Island Blvd	open
Bridgeview Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		971 E River Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1700 Grand Island Blvd	open
Burrata Rooftop Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2761 Long Rd	open
Casey's Cabana	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	1437 Ferry Rd	open
Cassorla's Bagels	Bakery	Bakery	1961 Huth Rd	open
China Wok Restaurant	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	2409 Grand Island Blvd	open
Cloudberry Cafe	Café	Coffee · Healthy / salads / bowls	2263 Grand Island Blvd	open
Currents Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	100 Whitehaven Rd	open
Dick & Jennys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1270 Baseline Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	2024 Grand Island Blvd	open
East River Inn, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1488 Ferry Rd	open
Eggsquisite Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	1752 Grand Island Blvd	open
Ellden's Grill & Banquet	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	201 Whitehaven Rd	open
Gator Jon's BBQ	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	3121 Grand Island Blvd	open
Grand Island V.f.w. Memorial Post #9249, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2121 Grand Island Blvd	open
JB's Coffee & Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2092 Grand Island Blvd	open
JG’s Island Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	2092 Grand Island Blvd	open
John's Pizza and Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	2131 Grand Island Blvd	open
Just Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2164 Grand Island Blvd	open
Lima’s Harbor Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1437 Ferry Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2231 Grand Island Blvd	open
Mighty Taco Mighty Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2455 Grand Island Blvd	open
Montana International Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2136 W Oakfield Rd	open
Old Bedell Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1437 Ferry Rd	open
Pizza Amore	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2024 Grand Island Blvd	open
River Benz Farm Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1270 Baseline Rd	open
Riverstone Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	971 E River Rd	open
Riverstone Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Steakhouse · Seafood	971 E River Rd	open
Rocky's Island Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2600 Grand Island Blvd	open
San-Dee's Pub	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1570 Ferry Rd	open
Sandy Beach Farm Store & Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3432 Wallace Dr	open
Say Cheese Pizza Co. Say Cheese Pizza Co./ The Comic Book Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Pizza · Coffee	1771 Love Rd	open
Schaefer's Island Saloon	Bar		267 North Ln	open
Simply Boba Bubble Tea & Banh Mi	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2600 Grand Island Blvd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2176 Grand Island Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2287 Grand Island Blvd	open
Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1754 Grand Island Blvd	open
Taquito Lindo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1849 Grand Island Blvd	open
The Beach House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	5584 E River Rd	open
The COOP Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2487 Long Rd	open
The Horny Moose	Bar		1660 E River Rd	open
The Island Shoppe	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Sandwiches	1966 Whitehaven Rd	open
The Oarhouse Eatery	Food truck		2024 Grand Island Blvd	open
The V'Randa	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		107 Beaver Island Park Road	open
The Viking Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	1849 Grand Island Blvd	open
The Village Inn Village Inn Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1488 Ferry Rd	open
Theodore's Red Hots	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	1752 Grand Island Blvd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2366 Grand Island Blvd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1685 Grand Island Blvd	open
Town Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2352 Grand Island Blvd	open
Town Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		2241 Grand Island Blvd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1685 Grand Island Blvd	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2140 Grand Island Blvd	open
Zobud Bistro	Casual dining		1879 Whitehaven Rd	open
Pepper Mill Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2749 Grand Island Blvd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	28	26	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	31	29	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	30	28	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	32	30	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	34	27	11	14	2	3	NAICS1997
1999	29	24	10	12	2	3	NAICS1997
2000	28	22	10	10	2	3	NAICS1997
2001	30	26	12	13	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	26	23	12	8	3	3	NAICS1997
2003	25	21	7	12	2	3	NAICS2002
2004	28	24	11	11	2	3	NAICS2002
2005	31	26	10	13	2	3	NAICS2002
2006	30	26	9	14	2	3	NAICS2002
2007	29	23	9	11	1	5	NAICS2002
2008	31	26	9	13	3	3	NAICS2007
2009	28	22	6	11	3	4	NAICS2007
2010	30	25	7	14	3	3	NAICS2007
2011	31	25	8	14	3	3	NAICS2007
2012	32	26	10	14	2	3	NAICS2012
2013	38	32	12	18	2	3	NAICS2012
2014	36	32	12	15	5	3	NAICS2012
2015	36	31	12	15	4	3	NAICS2012
2016	33	28	9	14	5	3	NAICS2012
2017	34	29	9	14	6	3	NAICS2017
2018	37	30	11	14	5	3	NAICS2017
2019	33	28	11	12	5	3	NAICS2017
2020	32	28	12	12	4	4	NAICS2017
2021	33	30	13	12	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	32	30	13	12	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	35	30	14	10	6	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14072. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14150	4.5 mi	87	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.