BMIE Market 14081

Erie County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,742 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±318 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,124 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±154 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,095 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,566 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$65,778 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,029 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	52.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$861 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±212 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$124,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±34,699 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	32.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14081
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	29.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+83.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 8–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	38 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	34 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	30 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14081. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	46.6	47	40%	+18.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33.7	34	35%	+11.8
Market Momentum Score	29.9	30	25%	+7.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,742	51	40%	+20.2
Median household income (ACS)	65,778	40	40%	+16.0
Households (ACS)	1,124	52	20%	+10.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	40.1	13	25%	+3.3
Population (ACS)	2,742	51	20%	+10.1
Median household income (ACS)	65,778	40	20%	+8.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 30 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-8.3	20	50%	+10.0
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	22.2	47	20%	+9.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 8 · Coffee 4 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 5 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aunt Millie's Family Restaurant and Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	American · Bakery	1024 RT-5	open
Beaches And Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1028 S Shore Dr	open
Big Indian Sandwich Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	597 Milestrip Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	639 NY-5 & 20	open
Busy Beaver's Restaurant at Wolf's Run	Quick service	Seafood	12795 RT-438	open
Cabana Sam's Sunset Bay Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1028 S Shore Dr	open
Colony Seafood and Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	876 Main Rd	open
Frosty Treat	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1016 Main Rd	open
Hey Hey Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	11359 US-20	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	687 Main Rd	open
Rbmanningholding, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		935 Route 5 and 20	open
Root 438 CAFE	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	12898 NY-438	open
Seneca Hawk Restaurant	Quick service		11979 Route 20	open
SpecialT's Concessions	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	Sulphur Springs Rd	open
Sportsman Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	12872 Alleghany Rd	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	926 Main St	open
Sunset Bay Breakwall Cafe	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	12952 Alleghany Rd	open
Sunset Bay Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	954 RT-5	open
Sunset Bay Waves Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1028 S Shore Dr	open
Sunset Grill Sunset Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1025 Main Rd	open
Tallchief Diner	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	11359 Us-20	open
The Hankery	Bakery	Bakery	989 RT-5	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	675 Main Rd	open
Tom's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	935 Allegany Rd	open
Villa Maria - Sunset Bay, NY	Bar			open
Primo's & Kelly's Pub	Bar · Casual dining	Italian	678 RT-5	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	6	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	7	7	6	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	10	8	6	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	10	9	7	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	11	8	6	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	12	9	7	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	12	9	6	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	11	8	5	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	13	10	5	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	14	11	6	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	13	10	5	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	12	10	5	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	12	10	5	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	12	9	4	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	14	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	11	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14081. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14061	2.2 mi	1	2016
14027	3.2 mi	2	1997

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.