BMIE Market 14103

Orleans County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,810 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±349 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,549 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±247 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,183 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,808 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,926 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,514 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$920 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±49 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$144,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,459 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	78.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14103
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+11.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 16–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	41 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	16 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14103. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.1	62	40%	+24.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40.7	41	35%	+14.2
Market Momentum Score	15.7	16	25%	+3.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,810	72	40%	+28.8
Median household income (ACS)	69,926	47	40%	+18.7
Households (ACS)	4,549	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.5	41	25%	+10.3
Population (ACS)	10,810	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	69,926	47	20%	+9.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 16 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	-20	14	20%	+2.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (48)

By cuisine

American 8 · Dessert 6 · Pizza 5 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Burgers 3 · Italian 3 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 16 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Quick service 4 · Café 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
810 Meadworks	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		113 W Center St	open
American Legion Medina Post 204 American Legion	Bar		305 N Main St	open
Associated Brands	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		4001 Salt Works Rd	open
Avanti Gourmet Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)		435 Main St	open
Avanti Pizza & Wood-Fired Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	500 Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	11212 Maple Ridge Rd	open
Captain Kidz	Casual dining	American · Seafood	143 E Center St	open
Case-nic Cookies	Bakery	Bakery	439 Main St	open
Catherine St. Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	123 E Center St	open
Country Club Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	535 Main St	open
Cuppa Joe LLC	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	114 E Center St	open
Cusimano's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	11358 Maple Ridge Rd	open
Della's Chocolates	Dessert	Dessert	512 Main St	open
Donkey’s Barnyard	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Mexican · Juice / smoothies	11412 Maple Ridge Rd	open
Double Dips	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1418 S Main St	open
Doug's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Sandwiches	11193 Maple Ridge Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	11378 Maple Ridge Rd	open
Fitzgibbons Public House	Bar	British / Irish pub food	429 Main St	open
GREAT WALL Chinese Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · American	515 Main Street Medina	open
great wall restaurant Great Wall Buffet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	515 Main St	open
Harvest Restaurant at Bent's Opera House Hotel	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	444 Main St	open
Heidi’s Hearth Bakeshop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1013 Elm St	open
Jim and Andy’s	Quick service	Burgers · Hot dogs	507 E Center St	open
Joe’s Garage	Bar		12397 Ridge Rd	open
Leonard Oakes Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		10609 Ridge Rd	open
LOEW Lounge at WildWood Lake KOA	Bar		2711 County Line Rd	open
Mandeo’s Candy Shoppe	Dessert		339 N Main St	open
Mariachi De Oro Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11417 Maple Ridge Rd	open
Mark's Pizzeria Mark's Pizzeria	Bar	Pizza · Italian	549 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	11201 Maple Ridge Rd	open
Mile 303	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		416 Main St	open
Miller's Bulk Food & Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	10858 Ridge Rd	open
Mjz Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		408 Main St	open
O'Brien's Tavern	Bar		610 Main St	open
Poler's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		610 Main St	open
Rudy's Soda Bar & Cafe	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	118 W Center St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1425 S Main St	open
Tapped on Main	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza	547 Main St	open
The English Rose Tea Shoppe	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	527 Main St	open
The Newell	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Casual dining · Café · Bar	Coffee · American	113 W Center St	open
The Park Grille	Food truck		11089 Park Ave	open
The Vintage Cigar	Bar		513 Main St	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	11305 Maple Ridge Rd	open
Tito's Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11417 Maple Ridge Rd	open
Vet's Club	Bar		216 E Center St	open
VFW	Bar		216 E Center St	open
Zambistro Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	408 Main St	open
The Bread Basket Bakery Inc.	Bakery	Bakery	513 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	18	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	19	16	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	19	17	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	24	21	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	22	16	7	7	2	4	NAICS1997
1999	24	19	8	7	4	2	NAICS1997
2000	24	20	8	8	4	2	NAICS1997
2001	25	21	9	8	4	2	NAICS1997
2002	25	20	8	9	3	2	NAICS1997
2003	28	25	12	9	4	1	NAICS2002
2004	22	18	8	8	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	22	18	8	8	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	24	20	11	7	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	26	21	9	10	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	22	17	8	7	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	23	18	6	10	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	20	15	5	8	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	23	17	6	8	3	3	NAICS2007
2012	23	18	7	8	3	2	NAICS2012
2013	26	22	9	10	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	24	21	9	9	3	1	NAICS2012
2015	25	23	11	8	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	23	20	10	7	3	2	NAICS2012
2017	29	23	10	7	5	4	NAICS2017
2018	31	24	11	8	4	5	NAICS2017
2019	29	21	10	7	3	5	NAICS2017
2020	25	19	9	6	3	4	NAICS2017
2021	27	20	9	7	3	5	NAICS2017
2022	28	21	9	6	5	5	NAICS2022
2023	28	20	8	6	5	6	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14103. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14479	4.0 mi	1	2011

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.