BMIE Market 14132

Niagara County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,453 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,398 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,234 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±350 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,218 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,451 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$97,210 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,032 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$946 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±49 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$284,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±53,606 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	28.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14132
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.26) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	52 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14132. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.26, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.9	70	40%	+28.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.7	65	35%	+22.6
Market Momentum Score	52.4	52	25%	+13.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,453	64	40%	+25.8
Median household income (ACS)	97,210	79	40%	+31.6
Households (ACS)	2,234	63	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	35%	+20.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.4	63	25%	+15.7
Population (ACS)	6,453	64	20%	+12.9
Median household income (ACS)	97,210	79	20%	+15.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	14.3	58	30%	+17.4
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Coffee 6 · American 4 · Pizza 4 · Dessert 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Italian 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Coffee shop 6 · Bar 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anthony Manor Winery and Farm	Winery / distillery / taproom		3671 Human Rd	open
BBQ By Mike	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2273 Saunders Settlement Rd	open
Buffalo Coffee Roastery	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5844 Buffalo St	open
D&J Pallet Pub	Bar			open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	3821 Lockport Rd	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2939 Saunders Settlement Rd	open
Fazio's Pizza Plus	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5830 Buffalo St	open
G-mac's Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5894 Ward Rd	open
Galaxy Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	2265 Saunders Settlement Rd	open
Hoovers Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6035 Ward Rd	open
J & K's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2390 Upper Mountain Rd	open
Ka:wih cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	5181 Chew Rd	open
Long Cliff Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3617 Lower Mountain Rd	open
Marlboro Kitchen and Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5894 Ward Rd	open
Nine is Fine Pub	Bar		6020 Townline Rd	open
Rickard's four generation food truck	Food truck · Quick service · Casual dining	American	4917 Black Nose Spring Rd	open
Sanborn Pizza by Dana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2935 Saunders Settlement Rd	open
Sandy's Coffee Shop	Other	Sandwiches	5835 Buffalo St # 3503	open
Schimschack's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2943 Upper Mountain Rd	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2846 Saunders Settlement Rd	open
Tallarico's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2282 Lockport Rd	open
The Nines at Shawnee	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Tim Hortons	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3111 Saunders Settlement Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	2970 Saunders Settlement Rd	open
Tortuga Sandwich Shop - Sanborn	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · Latin American (other)	5835 Buffalo St	open
Walmore Inn	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2201 Lockport Rd	open
John And Lonnie's Pizza And More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3655 Lockport Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	8	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	7	6	6	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	7	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	7	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	7	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	12	10	4	6	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	11	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	9	7	3	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	10	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14132. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14304	4.6 mi	86	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.