BMIE Market 14174

Niagara County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,669 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±519 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,461 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±209 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,794 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,616 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,695 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,954 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,145 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±78 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$250,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,588 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	23.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14174
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	3 (range 1–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.24) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	56 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14174. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.24, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.5	63	40%	+25.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.3	56	35%	+19.7
Market Momentum Score	56.4	56	25%	+14.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,669	62	40%	+25.0
Median household income (ACS)	79,695	62	40%	+24.7
Households (ACS)	2,461	64	20%	+12.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.8	77	25%	+19.2
Population (ACS)	5,669	62	20%	+12.5
Median household income (ACS)	79,695	62	20%	+12.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (12)

By cuisine

American 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Bar 7 · Casual dining 5 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 5 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bandana's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	930 Lake Rd	open
Griffon Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		200 Lockport St	open
Hill of Beans Coffee Stop	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	440 Main St	open
Petey's Treats	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery	431 Main St	open
Ray's Diner and Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	1694 Lake Rd	open
Somewhere	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		681 Blairville Rd	open
Spike's Lounge	Bar		376 Oak St	open
The Mug and Musket	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		418 Main St	open
Turn-Table Tuesday at The Stone Jug	Bar		358 Main St	open
Youngstown Bread Co.	Bakery	Bakery	301 Main St	open
Youngstown Marketside	Café	Coffee · Pizza	230 Lockport St	open
Youngstown Village Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	425 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	10	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1995	12	7	—	—	—	5	SIC1987
1996	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	10	6	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	10	6	4	2	—	4	NAICS1997
1999	11	6	4	2	—	4	NAICS1997
2000	11	6	3	3	—	4	NAICS1997
2001	11	7	6	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	10	7	5	1	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	8	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	8	5	3	1	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	9	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	9	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	7	5	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	10	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	8	5	3	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	8	5	4	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	9	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	9	5	5	—	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	8	5	5	—	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	9	6	6	—	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	12	9	8	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	9	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	10	5	4	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	9	4	3	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	8	4	3	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	7	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	4	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	5	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14174. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.