BMIE Market 14411

Orleans County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,429 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±381 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,923 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±278 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,491 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,487 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$55,641 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,511 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$858 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±71 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$114,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,594 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	112.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14411
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-6.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-6.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 13–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	32 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14411. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	53.4	53	40%	+21.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.3	54	35%	+19.0
Market Momentum Score	31.8	32	25%	+8.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,429	74	40%	+29.5
Median household income (ACS)	55,641	22	40%	+9.0
Households (ACS)	4,923	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	35%	+18.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.3	67	25%	+16.8
Population (ACS)	12,429	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	55,641	22	20%	+4.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-6.7	21	50%	+10.7
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	30%	+15.6
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

Pizza 6 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 5 · American 3 · Coffee 3 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 9 · Bakery 8 · Dessert 7 · Quick service 5 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
39 Problems	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	41 N Main St	open
Albion Exempt Inc	Bar		143 S Clinton St	open
Avanti Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	310 West Ave	open
Bapa South Main St Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		153 S Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	167 S Main St	open
Chia Sen Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	170 S Main St	open
Confection Connection	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	223 S Main St	open
Dazzy Chicken Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		316 West Ave	open
Dubby's Tailgate	Bar	Pizza	165 S Platt St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	153 S Main St	open
Jannie Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	246 E Bank St	open
Kfc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	168 S Main St	open
Lorenzo's Mexican Products Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	158 Hamilton St	open
Mark's Pizzeria Mark's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	171 S Clinton St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	112 West Ave	open
McFisties	Bar	British / Irish pub food	Hamilton St.	open
Mecate Albion NY Mecate Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	172 S Main St	open
Risen Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	469 E State St	open
Roadies Pizzeria and Sports Bar	Bar · Casual dining	Pizza	1939 Oak Orchard Rd	open
Romyn's Smoked BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	26 E Bank St	open
Rumble Mark DDS	Bar		245 S Main St	open
Salamaca Estate Winery	Bar		2660 Hindsburg Rd	open
SnL Sweet Escapes	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Bakery · Juice / smoothies · Dessert	4025 Wood Rd	open
St. Mary's Athletic Club	Bar		538 Moore St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	13858 State Route 31	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	162 S Main St	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		122 West Ave	open
Tavern on the Ridge Village Inn Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		14369 Ridge Rd W	open
The Country Punkin' Bakery, LLC	Bakery	Bakery	3009 Brown Rd	open
The Downtown Browsery	Brewery / taproom		118 N Main St	open
The Drink Shoppe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		438 West Ave	open
The Frosty Bucket	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	43 N Main St	open
Tiffany’s Tasty Treats	Bakery	Bakery	12489 W County House Rd	open
Tillmans Historic Village Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	14369 Ridge Rd W	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons Cafe and Bake Shop	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	161 S Main St	open
Tinsel	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	160 N Main St	open
Uncle Sal's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	29 E Bank St	open
Village House Restaurant	Casual dining	American	16 East Ave	open
Wild Flour Deli & Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	438 West Ave	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	19	15	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	20	17	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	17	15	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	20	16	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	21	16	9	6	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	18	15	7	7	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	15	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	15	9	6	3	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	16	12	6	6	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	18	14	7	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	20	16	8	8	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	19	16	8	7	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	19	16	8	7	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	19	15	6	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	16	12	5	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	18	12	6	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	20	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	19	14	6	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	20	15	6	8	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	18	13	5	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	19	15	5	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	4	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	15	13	4	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	19	16	3	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	15	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	15	4	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	14	4	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	16	—	8	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	18	3	8	7	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	14	—	9	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14411. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14479	4.4 mi	1	2011

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.