BMIE Market 14425

Ontario County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,839 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±237 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,325 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±202 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,717 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,205 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$94,609 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,663 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,407 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±140 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$235,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,312 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	19.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14425
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+15.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 12–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14425. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.09, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.1	76	40%	+30.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.1	60	35%	+21.0
Market Momentum Score	39.9	40	25%	+10.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,839	75	40%	+30.1
Median household income (ACS)	94,609	77	40%	+30.9
Households (ACS)	5,325	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.8	69	25%	+17.3
Population (ACS)	13,839	75	20%	+15.1
Median household income (ACS)	94,609	77	20%	+15.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	15.4	43	20%	+8.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 3 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 9 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 1 · Buffet 1 · Café 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1298 NY-332	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service		1298 State Route 332	open
Dario's Famous Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1560 State Route 332	open
Diablo Loco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1470 State Route 332	open
DJS Gator Pit	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5930 County Road 41	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1297 Route 332	open
Eddie O'Briens Grille and Bar Eddie O'Briens Grille and Bar-Canandaigua	Bar · Casual dining	American	5975 State Route 96	open
Eddie O'briens Track Side Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5975 State Route 96	open
El Jimador Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1470 State Route 332	open
Farmington Donuts, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1297 State Route 332	open
Farmington Hots & Ice Cream	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1270 Commercial Dr	open
Finger Lakes Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop	Coffee	6081 State Route 96	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches	1301 Route 332	open
Last Call	Bar		5988 State Route 96	open
Longshots Bar and Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6108 Loomis Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	6092 Rt 96	open
New King's Wok Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	6081 State Route 96	open
Park Place Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6025 State Route 96	open
Pontillo's Pizzeria of Farmington	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1560 State Route 332	open
Prosecco Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	1550 State Route 332	open
Remedy Bar	Coffee shop · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Café · Buffet	Coffee · American	5857 NY-96	open
Scarlett's Lodge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		6108 Loomis Rd	open
Styliadis Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6025 State Route 96	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6090 State Rt 96	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1295 NY-332	open
Toritos cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5988 NY-96	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	16	14	6	8	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	18	15	7	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	14	12	5	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	15	13	6	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	16	15	7	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	15	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	5	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	14	7	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	5	6	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	13	5	6	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	16	14	6	6	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	16	15	7	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	8	5	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	17	16	7	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	16	15	6	7	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	16	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	7	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	15	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	15	7	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14425. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14548	4.8 mi	3	2023
14564	4.9 mi	61	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.