BMIE Market 14468

Monroe County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,526 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,055 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,845 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±516 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,813 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,162 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,693 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,871 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±91 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$230,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,217 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	52.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14468
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+18.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+26.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+35.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+137.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 11–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14468. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.9	80	40%	+32.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.9	74	35%	+25.9
Market Momentum Score	70.0	70	25%	+17.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,526	80	40%	+32.0
Median household income (ACS)	98,693	80	40%	+32.1
Households (ACS)	6,845	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	26.7	69	35%	+24.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.3	71	25%	+17.8
Population (ACS)	18,526	80	20%	+16.0
Median household income (ACS)	98,693	80	20%	+16.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	18.8	76	50%	+38.2
10-year restaurant growth	26.7	69	30%	+20.6
20-year restaurant growth	35.7	56	20%	+11.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (41)

By cuisine

American 11 · Pizza 6 · Dessert 5 · Italian 5 · Burgers 4 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Bakery 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Quick service 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abbott's Frozen Custard of Hilton Abbott's Frozen Custard	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · American	11 Canning St	open
Bbq Fred	Restaurant (service type not stated)		610 N Greece Rd	open
Braddock Bay Tavern & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	372 Manitou Rd	open
Burger Park	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers	101 Hogan Point Rd	open
Caraglio's Pizza Caraglio's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	7 Main St	open
Carbone's Pizzeria Carbone's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	610 N Greece Rd	open
Carbone's Pizzeria Carbone's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	144 South Ave	open
Coffee Corner	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	32 Main St	open
Corks & Caps Pub	Bar · Casual dining		69 Country Creek Ln	open
Dell's Sweets & Treats	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	610 N Greece Rd	open
Docksiders Pub & Oven	Casual dining · Bar		416 Manitou Rd	open
Drifter's Cove	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	416 Manitou Rd	open
Foster's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	50 Canning St	open
Great Wall	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	84 South Ave	open
Hilton Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	54 Hovey St	open
Hilton Hotz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	75 Lake Ave	open
Jo's Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	444 North Ave	open
Jose Joe's Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	14 Main St	open
Juan's Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		467 Burritt Rd	open
Krazy Cakes Donutz and Coffee	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop · Café	Dessert · Coffee	610 N Greece Rd	open
Malarkey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	144 South Ave	open
Mamaste Cafe and Play	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	1235 Hilton Parma Corners Rd	open
Mayer's Winery Open Mic	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1593 Hamlin Parma Townline Rd	open
Mayers Lake Ontario Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1593 Hamlin Parma Townline Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	140 South Ave	open
Milling Station Tap & Table	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		50 Canning St	open
North Star Christian Academy	Restaurant (service type not stated)		990 Manitou Rd	open
Payne Beach Farm, LLC	Winery / distillery / taproom		64 Payne Beach Rd	open
Pontillo's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	8 Canning St	open
Robbie's Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	610 North Greece Rd	open
Ryan's Pub Ryan's Pub	Bar	Pizza	918 Roosevelt Hwy	open
Salvatore's Old Fashioned Pizzeria Salvatore's Old Fashioned Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	75 Lake Ave	open
Sub-hub Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)		75 Lake Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	98 South Ave	open
The Arlington Gastropub	Casual dining · Bar	American	4 Main St	open
The Chocolate Co and Bake Shop	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery	144 South Ave	open
The Creamery Hilton	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	144 South Ave	open
The Dakota	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	913 Roosevelt Hwy	open
The Hideout Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		610 N Greece Rd	open
The Willow	Bar · Casual dining		428 Manitou Rd	open
Wood Kettle Brewing	Brewery / taproom		1192 Manitou Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	15	12	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	13	12	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	13	11	5	6	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	15	12	5	7	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	16	12	5	7	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	15	12	5	7	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	16	14	8	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	17	14	7	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	17	15	9	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	15	13	7	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	18	14	9	5	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	14	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	15	12	7	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	18	13	7	4	2	3	NAICS2007
2010	18	13	6	5	2	3	NAICS2007
2011	19	15	9	4	2	2	NAICS2007
2012	18	16	8	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	17	16	10	4	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	19	18	11	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	19	18	10	6	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	21	18	12	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	16	9	4	3	3	NAICS2017
2019	16	13	6	4	3	3	NAICS2017
2020	16	13	6	4	3	3	NAICS2017
2021	18	14	6	7	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	18	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	21	19	7	9	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14468. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14515	4.5 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.