BMIE Market 14469

Ontario County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	6,008 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±511 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,736 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±269 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,220 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,636 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$74,521 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,588 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	50.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$882 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±176 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$204,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,915 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	66.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14469
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+80.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 8–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.28) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14469. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.28, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.2	60	40%	+24.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.4	56	35%	+19.8
Market Momentum Score	60.4	60	25%	+15.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	6,008	63	40%	+25.3
Median household income (ACS)	74,521	54	40%	+21.8
Households (ACS)	2,736	66	20%	+13.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.0	53	25%	+13.2
Population (ACS)	6,008	63	20%	+12.7
Median household income (ACS)	74,521	54	20%	+10.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · American 3 · Pizza 3 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Breakfast 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bar 5 · Dessert 5 · Brewery / taproom 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Big Bass Brasserie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	14 Main St.	open
Brady J's	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	24 Maple Ave	open
Brewed Awakening Brewed Awakening	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	6570 State Route 5 and 20	open
Bristol Valley Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7235 Lane Rd	open
Cheap Charlie's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	8 Elm St	open
Destiny Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		24 Maple Ave	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	3 Main St	open
Fandangos	Bar		24 Maple Ave	open
Hot Diggity G	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4 Elm St	open
LB’s Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10 Main St	open
Mugsy’s Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6610 State Route 5 and 20	open
Noble Shepherd Craft Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		7853 State Route 20A	open
Other Half Brewing Finger Lakes Other Half Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		6621 5&20	open
Other Half Finger Lakes	Brewery / taproom		6621 State Route 5 and 20	open
Parkside Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	15 South Ave	open
Raymor Estate Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		3263 Wheeler Station Rd	open
Shark's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	50 State St	open
Shivers Shakes & Cones	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6600 State Route 5 and 20	open
Sykes Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	15 South Ave	open
The Irish Mafia Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		2971 Whalen Rd	open
Two Scoops	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4 Elm St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	8	6	3	2	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	1	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	8	7	3	2	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	9	8	3	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	3	2	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	7	6	1	2	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	8	7	2	2	3	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	9	3	2	4	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	4	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	4	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	3	2	3	2	NAICS2012
2015	10	8	3	2	3	2	NAICS2012
2016	11	9	3	3	3	2	NAICS2012
2017	10	8	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	9	4	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	8	4	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	8	4	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	5	—	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	4	—	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14469. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14475	4.3 mi	—
14585	4.6 mi	2	2001

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.