BMIE Market 14482

Genesee County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	8,339 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,810 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±222 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	8,275 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,647 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$74,216 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,002 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$906 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±165 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$177,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,669 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	60.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14482
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+33.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 13–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14482. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.8	63	40%	+25.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40.4	40	35%	+14.2
Market Momentum Score	15.1	15	25%	+3.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	8,339	68	40%	+27.2
Median household income (ACS)	74,216	54	40%	+21.6
Households (ACS)	3,810	70	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	35%	+6.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.2	39	25%	+9.9
Population (ACS)	8,339	68	20%	+13.6
Median household income (ACS)	74,216	54	20%	+10.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-20	13	50%	+6.5
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	30%	+5.3
20-year restaurant growth	-11.1	17	20%	+3.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

American 7 · Italian 5 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 4 · Burgers 3 · Coffee 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Quick service 7 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Specialty food shop 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Beautiful Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	112 W Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	134 W Main St	open
C H Wright Distributing	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		3 Wright Ave	open
Capish Pizza Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	49 Main St	open
Creekside Tavern Of Leroy Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Main St	open
D & R Depot Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	63 Lake St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	125 W Main St	open
Farmers Creekside Tavern & Inn	Bar		1 Main St	open
Ficarella's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	110 W Main St	open
Gunsmoke Country Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2577 Caledonia-Leroy Rd	open
Gunsmoke Saloon	Bar		2577 Leroy Caledonia Rd # 4	open
Henry's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	24 Main St	open
Jerry's Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		140 W Main St	open
Kade's Scratch Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	15 Main St	open
L.B. Grand	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	37 Main St	open
Leroy Discount Liquor and Wine	Winery / distillery / taproom		128 W Main St	open
Leroy's No Finer Diner	Casual dining	American	140 W Main St	open
Mama Chavez's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	7 Mill St	open
Mbm Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	67 Main St	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	8700 Valance Rd	open
Oatka Distillers	Winery / distillery / taproom		57 North St	open
Original Pizza Of Boston	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	8700 Vallance Rd	open
Pizza 151 Pizza 151	Delivery-focused	Pizza · Italian	127 W Main St	open
Pizza Land Pizza Land	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	131 W Main St	open
Settler's Select	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	37 Main St	open
Smokin' Eagle BBQ & Brew	Bar · Casual dining	BBQ	9 Main St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8706 Vallance Rd.	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	110 West Main Street, Crosby's	open
The Happy Pickle NY	Specialty food shop · Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bakery	Sandwiches · Bakery	24 Main St	open
The Little Ridge	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8101 Conlon Rd	open
Tim Hortons	Café	Coffee	128 W Main St	open
Woody's Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	47 North St	open
Xing Wang Chinese Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		110 W Main St	open
Mooney's Sports Bar & Grill	Bar		65 Lake St	closed
Ms Casino, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7 Mill St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	12	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1995	17	13	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1996	21	17	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	20	18	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	22	19	11	5	3	3	NAICS1997
1999	23	20	10	6	4	3	NAICS1997
2000	23	19	11	6	2	4	NAICS1997
2001	16	13	9	4	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	25	20	10	8	2	5	NAICS1997
2003	22	18	10	7	1	4	NAICS2002
2004	18	14	7	6	—	4	NAICS2002
2005	17	14	8	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	18	15	7	7	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	17	15	5	8	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	3	6	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	17	14	5	7	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	18	16	6	8	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	20	18	7	8	3	2	NAICS2007
2012	18	17	7	8	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	18	18	8	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	17	17	7	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	17	7	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	19	9	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	23	23	9	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	20	8	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	21	9	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	20	9	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	17	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	17	7	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14482. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14511	4.6 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.