BMIE Market 14502

Wayne County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,831 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±742 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,865 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±375 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,691 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,326 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$83,330 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,585 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,003 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±132 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$234,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,328 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	15 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14502
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-11.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+15.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.7 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	27 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14502. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	70	70	40%	+28.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.5	45	35%	+15.9
Market Momentum Score	27.2	27	25%	+6.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,831	72	40%	+28.8
Median household income (ACS)	83,330	66	40%	+26.4
Households (ACS)	4,865	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	35%	+3.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.9	57	25%	+14.3
Population (ACS)	10,831	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	83,330	66	20%	+13.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	30%	+3.1
20-year restaurant growth	-11.8	16	20%	+3.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 5 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Mexican 3 · Burgers 2 · Italian 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Quick service 9 · Bar 5 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bakewise Brands Inc	Bakery	Bakery	1688 Wayneport Rd	open
Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1166 State Route 31	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1503 Canandaigua Rd	open
Dar's Delights HomeMade Ice Cream	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	Victor Road	open
DisBatch Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		3250 Canandaigua Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	1231 State Route 31	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		425 State Route 31	open
Duvall Sourdough CO.	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	2555 NY-31	open
Eli Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	129 Main St	open
Flaherty's Three Flags Inn — Macedon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	113 Pittsford Palmyra Rd	open
Frank's Pizza Shack, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		91 W Main St	open
Gananda Hots	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3290 Canandaigua Rd	open
Ginger Bread Shoppe	Bakery	Bakery	75 W Main St	open
Hooligans Eastside Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1011 Pittsford Palmyra Rd	open
JD Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1342 Eddy Rd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	362 State Rt 31	open
Log Cabin Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2445 W Walworth Rd	open
Mac's Pizza Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3250 Canandaigua Rd	open
Macedon Hills Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1090 NY-31	open
Mark's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	921 State Route 31	open
Marvin Mozzeroni's Pizza & Pasta Restaurant	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert · Pizza	129 Main St, 129 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1241 Pittsford-Palmyra Rd	open
Mecate Mexican Restaurant Macedon Mecate Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1166 Macedon Center Rd	open
Salvatore's Old Fashioned Pizzeria Salvatore's Old Fashioned Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	91 W Main St	open
Stop Light Pizza & Subs & Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	91 W Main St	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1503 Canandaigua Rd Ste 300	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	337 Pittsford-Palmyra Rd.	open
The Brew House Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	101 W Main St	open
The Culinary Center at Vella	Restaurant (service type not stated)		237 Pittsford-Palmyra Road (Rt. 31)	open
The Gananda Pub	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1 Country Club Dr	open
Twisted Rail Brewing Co	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		108 Main St, 108 Main St	open
West Wayne Restaurant	Casual dining	American	1900 NY-31	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	13	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	12	11	7	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	14	13	8	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	16	15	10	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	17	14	7	6	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	16	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	17	17	9	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	19	19	9	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	20	20	8	10	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	17	17	6	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	16	7	8	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	16	16	8	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	16	7	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	19	19	8	9	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	18	18	8	8	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	21	21	10	9	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	21	20	9	8	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	19	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	17	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	16	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	14	7	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	7	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	16	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	15	7	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14502. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14568	4.1 mi	3	2023
14450	4.3 mi	64	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.