BMIE Market 14510

Livingston County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,754 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±194 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,862 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±179 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,895 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,215 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$61,713 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,633 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$782 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±99 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$104,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,926 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	75.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14510
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-42.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 5–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.78) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	35 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	34 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	13 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14510. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.78, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.9	49	40%	+19.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	33.8	34	35%	+11.8
Market Momentum Score	13.4	13	25%	+3.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,754	60	40%	+23.8
Median household income (ACS)	61,713	33	40%	+13.1
Households (ACS)	1,862	60	20%	+12.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 34 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-27.3	11	35%	+3.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.8	46	25%	+11.6
Population (ACS)	4,754	60	20%	+11.9
Median household income (ACS)	61,713	33	20%	+6.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 13 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	50%	+8.9
10-year restaurant growth	-27.3	11	30%	+3.2
20-year restaurant growth	-42.9	7	20%	+1.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 5 · Coffee 3 · Pizza 3 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Hot dogs 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Dessert 4 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Quick service 2 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Borikén Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	40 Main St	open
Brian's USA Diner	Casual dining	American	5524 Mt Morris Rd	open
Collard 1 Development, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36 E State St	open
David's Street Side Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Hot dogs	74 Main St	open
Doughboy Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	36 E State St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	66 E State St	open
Fallbrook Farms	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	5132 Mt Morris Rd	open
High Banks Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		36 Main St	open
Keshequa Creek	Bar			open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	36 E. State Street	open
Lavish Eats	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · American	83 Main St	open
Leaning Tower	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	25 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	13 E State St	open
Mun Yuen Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	43 E State St	open
Questa Lasagna	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	55 Main St	open
Regal Hots	Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs	39 Mill St	open
Renewed Coffee Co	Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Subway	Quick service		36 E State St	open
Suzea's Gluten Free Cafe	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	115 Main St	open
Tomaso's Trattoria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	40 Main St	open
Wendy's Pantry and Country Mouse Tea House	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	84 Main St NOT	open
Zeppo's Creekside Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	93 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	12	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	12	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	12	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	15	11	6	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2001	12	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	16	14	10	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	15	13	10	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	14	11	8	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	12	8	5	3	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	13	8	5	3	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	13	8	5	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	11	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	11	6	3	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	12	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	14	10	6	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	11	7	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	10	7	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	10	6	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	10	5	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	8	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	10	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14510. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14556	2.1 mi	1	2010

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.