BMIE Market 14519

Wayne County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,642 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±530 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,222 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±235 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,581 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,709 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$85,532 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,462 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$887 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±177 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$234,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,687 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	42.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14519
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+9.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+9.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.32) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	53 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	40 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14519. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.32, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.1	72	40%	+28.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.8	53	35%	+18.5
Market Momentum Score	40.4	40	25%	+10.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,642	74	40%	+29.7
Median household income (ACS)	85,532	69	40%	+27.5
Households (ACS)	5,222	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	35%	+5.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.5	74	25%	+18.5
Population (ACS)	12,642	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	85,532	69	20%	+13.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	9.1	66	50%	+33.2
10-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	30%	+4.9
20-year restaurant growth	-25	12	20%	+2.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 6 · Pizza 6 · Dessert 4 · Burgers 3 · Coffee 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 19 · Quick service 6 · Dessert 5 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Bar 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Café 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bill Gray's Bill Gray's	Quick service · Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers · Hot dogs · Dessert	364 State Route 104	open
Cam's Pizzeria Cam's Pizzeria Dewitt	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2002 Ridge Rd	open
Caraglio's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1208 State Route 104	open
Carl Joseph Enterprise	Restaurant (service type not stated)		552 State Route 104	open
Charlie Riedel's Fast Food	Quick service	Burgers · American	552 NY 104	open
Daydream Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5681 Walworth-Ontario Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert · Bakery	1873 RT-104	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	6250 Furnace Rd	open
Empire State Distillers	Winery / distillery / taproom		6363 Knickerbocker Rd	open
Fastrac Fastrac	Café · Quick service	Coffee	1133 RT-104	open
Hai Ru Chinese	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	1250 State Route 104	open
Heintzelman's Bbq Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6361 Knickerbocker Rd	open
Heintzelmans Marinade Magic	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	6525 Lakeside Rd	open
Konstantinou's Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		2030 RT-104	open
Konstantinou's Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2030 New York 104	open
Lakeside Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	6270 Lakeside Rd	open
Magic Wok	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	6258 Furnace Road Tops plaza	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1204 Rt 104	open
Mike's Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6200 County Line Rd	open
Ontario Pizza Parlor Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6200 County Line Rd	open
Precious Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	2005 RT-104	open
Pub On The Green	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		2101 Country Club Ln	open
RandR hots	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1250 NY 104	open
Salvatore's Old Fashioned Pizzeria Salvatore's Old Fashioned Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6200 County Line Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	6254 Furnace Road	open
Sue's Little Pizza Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1795 Ridge Rd	open
Sunny's Country Kitchen	Casual dining	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	6361 Knickerbocker Rd	open
Vicari's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1795 Ridge Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	14	11	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	14	12	5	6	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	12	10	5	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	11	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	14	12	6	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	12	11	5	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	17	16	6	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	18	17	6	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	18	17	5	10	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	17	16	5	9	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	14	13	4	7	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	14	13	4	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	5	5	3	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	13	5	6	2	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	6	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	16	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	16	4	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	20	17	5	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	14	4	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	17	13	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	11	3	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	13	3	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	4	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14519. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.