BMIE Market 14521

Seneca County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,594 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±295 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,071 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±150 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,761 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,390 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,198 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,281 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,018 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±143 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$163,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,454 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	38.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14521
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	18.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+133.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	10 (range 7–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14521. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	47.1	47	40%	+18.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.4	45	35%	+15.9
Market Momentum Score	35.2	35	25%	+8.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,594	50	40%	+19.8
Median household income (ACS)	67,198	43	40%	+17.1
Households (ACS)	1,071	51	20%	+10.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	35%	+21.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	27.0	24	25%	+5.9
Population (ACS)	2,594	50	20%	+9.9
Median household income (ACS)	67,198	43	20%	+8.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-12.5	17	50%	+8.5
10-year restaurant growth	16.7	60	30%	+18.0
20-year restaurant growth	16.7	44	20%	+8.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Bar 7 · Winery / distillery / taproom 7 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aj's Family Diner	Casual dining	American	7176 North Main Street	open
American Legion American Legion Baseball	Bar		2252 RT-96	open
Barry Family Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		3050 Swick Rd	open
Blackduck Cidery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3046 County Road 138	open
Cayuga Ridge Estate Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		6800 Elm Beach Rd	open
Depew Chow Hall at Ovid VFW	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Quick service		7068 NY-96	open
Hosmer Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		7020 RT-89	open
Lost Kingdom Brewery / Firehouse Tap Room	Brewery / taproom · Bar		7160 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2202 Ny-96	open
Myer Farm Distillers	Winery / distillery / taproom		7350 State Route 89	open
New Dragon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	7188-7190 S Main St	open
Pat's Pizzeria Pat's Pizzas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2186 NY-96A	open
Rylee's Place Family Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1401 Co Rd 132	open
Seneca Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	2160 E Seneca St	open
Sheldrake Point Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		7448 County Rd 153	open
Silo Food Truck	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering			open
Six Eighty Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3050 Swick Rd	open
Tastes of Wine Country Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	1855 NY-96	open
The Copper Oven (at Cayuga Ridge Estate Winery)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6800 State Route 89	open
The Golden Buck	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2082 W Seneca St	open
Thirsty Owl Bistro	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)		6861 Rt. 89	open
Village Soft Serve	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	7103 Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	7	—	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14521. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14588	3.3 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.