BMIE Market 14532

Ontario County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,165 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±397 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,752 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±199 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,431 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,869 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$81,923 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,001 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,182 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±145 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$170,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,767 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	41.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14532
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	27.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-11.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+0.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 1–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	50 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	45 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14532. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.6	61	40%	+24.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40.4	40	35%	+14.1
Market Momentum Score	44.8	45	25%	+11.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,165	57	40%	+23.0
Median household income (ACS)	81,923	65	40%	+25.8
Households (ACS)	1,752	59	20%	+11.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	35%	+6.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.2	39	25%	+9.8
Population (ACS)	4,165	57	20%	+11.5
Median household income (ACS)	81,923	65	20%	+12.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	-11.1	18	30%	+5.3
20-year restaurant growth	-11.1	17	20%	+3.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 6 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Astoria Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	106 Main St	open
Blue Ribbon Smokehouse Restaurant & Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	261 Main St	open
Byrne Dairy	Dessert · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery	2067 RT-96	open
China Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	76 Main St	open
Crafty Ales and Lagers	Brewery / taproom · Bar		2 Exchange St	open
Dirty Jack's Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		5B Church St	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1399 Nine Foot Rd	open
Fat Boy's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	114 Main St	open
Finger Lakes Wine Region	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Fluffing Feathers and Flour Bake Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	104 Main St	open
Forage	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	91 Main St	open
Henyo's Gooney Village	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	1930 NY-96	open
Local Palate	Restaurant (service type not stated)		91 Main St	open
Magee Country Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1303 State Route 14	open
Old Mill Hot Dog Stand	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	129 Main St	open
Otis & Lisa's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	85 Main St	open
Savor'Es Mexico	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	102-1 Main St	open
Smokin Tails Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3 Church St	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1399 Nine Foot Rd	open
The Pizza Coop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	112 Main St	open
The Roberts Homestead	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		5 Franklin St	open
Truckers Lounge	Bar			open
Vanilla Bean Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	104 Main St	open
Vienna Cafe & Consignment	Restaurant (service type not stated)		102 Main St	open
Waterside Wine Bar	Bar		125 Main St	open
Ww Surge	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1250 Maryland Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	14	9	5	2	2	5	NAICS1997
1999	13	8	5	1	2	5	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	4	1	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	11	8	5	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	12	9	5	2	2	3	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	9	5	2	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	6	2	3	1	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	5	2	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	6	1	4	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	12	6	2	4	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	12	4	4	4	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	11	7	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	11	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2013	11	9	5	2	2	1	NAICS2012
2014	10	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	10	4	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	5	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	8	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	7	7	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14532. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.