BMIE Market 14541

Seneca County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,713 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±386 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	858 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±148 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,129 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,279 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$77,375 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,560 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	32.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,294 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±152 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$232,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,747 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	47.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	1 2013 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2013 detail (NAICS2012) · by USPS ZIP 14541
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 1998 → 2003, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2013, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2018	1 (range 0–3) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1995–2013 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.08) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	39 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14541. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1995–2013, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.08, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.0	55	40%	+22.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.6	60	35%	+20.9
Market Momentum Score	39.2	39	25%	+9.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,713	56	40%	+22.3
Median household income (ACS)	77,375	59	40%	+23.4
Households (ACS)	858	47	20%	+9.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.7	98	25%	+24.5
Population (ACS)	3,713	56	20%	+11.1
Median household income (ACS)	77,375	59	20%	+11.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 39 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+26.1
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+13.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (13)

By cuisine

American 2 · Dessert 2 · BBQ 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 7 · Bar 6 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 3 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Between The Lakes BBQ	Catering	BBQ · American	5102 NY-89	open
Boathouse Beer Garden	Bar		6128 State Route 89	open
Buttonwood Grove Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5986 State Route 89	open
Cayuga Lake Wine Trail	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4565 State Route 96A	open
Field & Vine	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2770 Ernsberger Rd	open
Finger Lakes Wine Country	Winery / distillery / taproom		Seneca Lake	open
Glaze & Grind	Coffee shop · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	6295 State Route 96A	open
Lake House Brewing	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		5480 NY-89	open
Lakeshore Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5132 RT-89	open
Swedish Hill Vineyard and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		4565 NY-414	open
The Ice Cream Stand in Romulus	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5785 NY-96	open
Three Seasons Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2770 Ernsberger Rd # 9757	open
Varick Winery & Inn	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5102 State Route 89	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2009	1	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	—	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2012

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14541. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
13065	4.1 mi	1	2014

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.