BMIE Market 14712

Chautauqua County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,262 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±232 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,504 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±173 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,342 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,237 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$86,083 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,396 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	56.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$859 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±204 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$236,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±38,806 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	8 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14712
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	35.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-27.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-27.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 3–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.4 per year, r² 0.33) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	40 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	11 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14712. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.33, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	60.4	60	40%	+24.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	36.2	36	35%	+12.7
Market Momentum Score	11.0	11	25%	+2.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,262	54	40%	+21.4
Median household income (ACS)	86,083	69	40%	+27.7
Households (ACS)	1,504	56	20%	+11.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	35%	+4.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	24.5	27	25%	+6.9
Population (ACS)	3,262	54	20%	+10.7
Median household income (ACS)	86,083	69	20%	+13.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	50%	+4.8
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	30%	+4.1
20-year restaurant growth	-27.3	10	20%	+2.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (23)

By cuisine

American 6 · Pizza 3 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
4front Ltd	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4663 Route 430	open
Bemus Point Inn Restaurant	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	4958 Main St	open
Bridgeview One Stop Deli Pizzeria C-Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4910 Main St	open
Coppola's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	20 Main St	open
Crosby's - Greenhurst	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3018 Route 430	open
Ellery Country Cow	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	4493 Dutch Hollow Rd	open
Ellicottville Brewing on Chautauqua Ellicottville Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		57 Lakeside Dr	open
Guppy's Restaurant & Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		4663 NY-430	open
Lake County Dairy	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3018 Route 430	open
Lake Life Cafe	Coffee shop · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	22 Main St	open
Splash	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	60 Lakeside Dr	open
Steener's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		3022 NY-430	open
Sweet Lolita's Gourmet Cupcakes and Sweet Treats	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	4 Main St	open
The Fish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	61 Lakeside Dr	open
The Green Door Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		4739 NY-430	open
The Happy Cow	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	4 Main St	open
The House That Jack Built Bar	Casual dining · Bar		3041 NY-430	open
The Italian Fisherman	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	61 Lakeside Dr	open
The Lamplighter Room	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		20 Lakeside Dr	open
The OLD See Zurh & Shaggy’s - new ownership	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	14 Main St	open
The Springs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4860 Route 430	open
the Vikings Lake Park on Chautauqua Lake	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4923 RT-430	open
Steenersllc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3022 Route 430	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	10	9	7	2	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	7	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	7	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	6	1	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	7	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	15	13	9	3	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	13	11	9	2	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	8	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	14	13	11	1	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	16	15	10	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2009	15	14	10	2	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	12	9	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	9	2	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	13	11	10	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	12	10	9	1	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	14	12	10	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	10	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	14	12	10	1	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	16	14	11	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	14	11	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	10	7	—	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	13	9	6	3	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	10	7	5	—	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	11	8	6	—	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14712. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14785	2.9 mi	1	2016
14756	3.3 mi	1	2011

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.