BMIE Market 14727

Allegany County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,925 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±295 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,131 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±143 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,450 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,382 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$63,257 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,755 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$779 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±57 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$108,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,032 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	106.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14727
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+85.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+62.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 11–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.65) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	85 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14727. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.65, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50.7	51	40%	+20.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.6	57	35%	+19.8
Market Momentum Score	85.4	85	25%	+21.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,925	60	40%	+24.1
Median household income (ACS)	63,257	36	40%	+14.3
Households (ACS)	2,131	62	20%	+12.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	85.7	89	35%	+31.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	26.4	24	25%	+6.1
Population (ACS)	4,925	60	20%	+12.0
Median household income (ACS)	63,257	36	20%	+7.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	44.4	88	50%	+44.2
10-year restaurant growth	85.7	89	30%	+26.9
20-year restaurant growth	62.5	72	20%	+14.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 4 · Dessert 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Asian 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Casual dining 6 · Bar 5 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Food truck 2 · Other 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bistro	Casual dining		17 W Main St	open
Cable Car Concessions	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		4409 Route 305	open
Carpie's Grill	Casual dining · Bar		381 N Shore Rd	open
Center Street Pizza LLC	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Pizza · Sandwiches · Italian	6 Center St	open
Charlie's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	64 Genesee St	open
CHINA SEA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	38 W Main St	open
CTK’s “Nectar of the Maple”	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		6117 New Mexico Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		84 Genesee Street	open
Fox's Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	6 Center St	open
Genesee Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	46 Genesee St	open
JSS Vapor shop and lounge	Bar		34 W Main St	open
Lake Effect Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	32 W Main St	open
Little Alchemy Shop Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		40 W Main St Ste 111	open
Mama B’s Roadside Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	653 Route 446	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	97 Genesee St	open
Moonwinks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	9302 Jackson Hill Rd	open
Murdock's	Casual dining · Bar		9302 N Shore Rd	open
S & C Farm Local Honey	Food truck		8639 Stout Rd	open
Scoops & Crumbs (OPENS MAY 9)	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery	4 W Main St	open
Six South Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6 South St	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	27 W Main St	open
Sweet Meredith's Fudgery	Dessert	Dessert	12 W Main St	open
The Kopper Keg	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	11 E Main St	open
The Old Grey Hound	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food	46 Genesee St	open
The Perfect Blend Coffeehouse & Eatery	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	14 W Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	11	10	6	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	4	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	5	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	10	8	5	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	11	9	6	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	6	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	12	10	6	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	11	8	5	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	9	7	3	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	8	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	13	7	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14727. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.