BMIE Market 14757

Chautauqua County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,114 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±352 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,312 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±149 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,487 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,530 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,115 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,793 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	46.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$712 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±58 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$186,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,149 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14757
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	37.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-35.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-10.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.6 per year, r² 0.83) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	32 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	27 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	11 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14757. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.83, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	48.9	49	40%	+19.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	27.4	27	35%	+9.6
Market Momentum Score	11.0	11	25%	+2.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,114	53	40%	+21.1
Median household income (ACS)	67,115	43	40%	+17.0
Households (ACS)	1,312	54	20%	+10.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 27 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-35.7	9	35%	+3.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	28.9	21	25%	+5.3
Population (ACS)	3,114	53	20%	+10.5
Median household income (ACS)	67,115	43	20%	+8.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	50%	+7.0
10-year restaurant growth	-35.7	9	30%	+2.6
20-year restaurant growth	-40	7	20%	+1.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 9 · Coffee 6 · Italian 3 · Mexican 3 · Seafood 3 · Pizza 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · French 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Café 6 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Food truck 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Andriaccio's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood · Pizza	4837 W Lake Rd	open
Big Inlet Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		6169 Elm Flat Rd	open
Big Melch's Smokin BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	Elm Flat Rd	open
Boxcar Barney's	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	13 W Lake Rd	open
Coasta Modern Mediterranean	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mediterranean · American	3943 NY-394 Ste 2	open
Fly On In Airport Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	6167 Plank Rd	open
Hartfield Bay Cafe	Café	Coffee	6040 E Lake Rd	open
Hunt Hacienda	Bar	Mexican	68 E Chautauqua St	open
La Fleur	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	5031 W Lake Rd	open
Mayville Diner	Casual dining	American	7 W Chautauqua St	open
Mc2 Hospitality Group, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		21 S Erie St	open
MexiCali Munchie Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Pizza	21 S Erie St, 21 S Erie St	open
Music For Your Mouth	Restaurant (service type not stated)		21 S Erie St	open
Olde Corner Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	6344 County Touring Rte 54	open
Olive's & Bellini Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	102 E Chautauqua St	open
Olive's At Chautauqua Suites	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	215 W Lake Rd	open
Pueblo Real	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	43 S Erie St	open
Redline Drive-In	Casual dining	American · Burgers	5117 W Lake Rd	open
Seiberg’s Produce Stand	Food truck		3679 CR-33	open
She Sings Cafe, Restaurant and Bar	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Coffee	95 W Lake Rd	open
Stedman Corners Cafe	Café	Coffee	6335 Magnolia Stedman Rd	open
Tabouli Street Eatz	Food truck			open
The Best of Buffalo by Byron	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering			open
The Docks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	7 Water St	open
The Sweet Spot	Café	Coffee	4 N Erie St	open
The White Carrot	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4717 Chautauqua Stedman Rd	open
Tim Hortons Tim Hortons	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	7 W Chautauqua St	open
Tulip's Brunch House	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	186 S Erie St	open
Watermark Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse · American	188 S Erie St	open
Webb's Captain's Table Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	115 W Lake Rd	open
Webb's Candies	Dessert	Dessert	115 W Lake Rd	closed
Webb's Rest. & Bowling, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		115 W Lake Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	13	10	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	14	11	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	12	9	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	13	10	5	3	2	3	NAICS1997
1999	14	11	6	4	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	14	13	9	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	15	14	9	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	14	12	6	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2003	16	15	7	7	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	13	8	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	13	9	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	13	13	10	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	16	13	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	13	10	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	10	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	13	10	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	13	10	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	16	16	11	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	14	10	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	8	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	14	10	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	13	9	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	13	9	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	9	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	8	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14757. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14722	2.7 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.