BMIE Market 14837

Yates County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,801 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±372 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,213 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±166 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,648 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,084 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$65,845 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,452 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$785 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±91 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$155,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,959 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	78.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14837
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-37.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.12) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	14 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14837. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.12, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	53.7	54	40%	+21.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.3	45	35%	+15.9
Market Momentum Score	13.9	14	25%	+3.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,801	63	40%	+25.1
Median household income (ACS)	65,845	40	40%	+16.1
Households (ACS)	2,213	63	20%	+12.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	35%	+5.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.6	78	25%	+19.4
Population (ACS)	5,801	63	20%	+12.6
Median household income (ACS)	65,845	40	20%	+8.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	30%	+4.5
20-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	20%	+2.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

American 5 · Bakery 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Coffee 2 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 13 · Bar 9 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 3 · Dessert 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Quick service 2 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anita Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	14191 Keuka Village Rd	open
Barrington Distillers	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5040 Bill Bailey Rd #9765	open
ChrisB's	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	124 State Route 230	open
Classic Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	1 Main St	open
Dean Lane Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering		1100 Dean Ln	open
Fruit Yard Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		5060 State Route 14	open
Fulkerson Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		5576 State Route 14	open
Glenora Farms	Winery / distillery / taproom		340 Dundee Glenora Rd	open
Hatoka Acres	Bakery	Bakery	94 Main St	open
Hermann J. Wiemer Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		3962 NY-14	open
Hickory Hollow Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		5289 NY-14	open
Highland Cellars	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom		5289 State Route 14	open
Keg & Barrel on Keuka Lake	Casual dining · Bar		14720 NY-54	open
Keuka Cones	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	14720 State Route 54	open
McGregor Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		5503 Dutch St	open
Moore Sweets	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Bakery · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Coffee	17 Seneca St	open
Novak Farms Dairy Barn	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	309 Co Rd 23	open
Off Leash Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		4121 NY-14	open
Poplar Wine Co.	Winery / distillery / taproom		150 Poplar Point Rd	open
R.E.D.S. Hots	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	5090 State Route 14	open
Shaw Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		3901 NY-14	open
Starkey's Lookout	Winery / distillery / taproom		5428 State Route 14	open
Tabora Farm & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches	4978 Lakemont-Himrod Rd	open
Tabora Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		810 Shannon Corners Rd	open
The O’begley Distillery	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5430 State Route 14	open
The Pour House	Bar		2 Main St	open
Tin Barn Brewing FLX	Brewery / taproom · Bar		5428 NY-14	open
Veraisons Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5435 NY-14	open
VFW Post 8649	Casual dining · Bar		125 Seneca St	open
Waneta Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4015 E Waneta Lake Rd	open
Waneta LLC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		4015 E Waneta Lake Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	9	6	5	1	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	4	1	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	9	7	4	1	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	9	7	3	2	2	2	NAICS1997
2002	9	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	8	7	4	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	7	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	9	8	3	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	8	7	3	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	8	5	2	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	5	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14837. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.