BMIE Market 14842

Yates County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	802 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±222 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	279 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±82 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	938 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	594 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$74,821 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,321 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	29.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$859 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±189 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$470,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±389,736 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	Not published for this ZIP 2022 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2022 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14842
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	10.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2015 → 2020, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2010 → 2020, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2025	3 (range 2–4) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2010–2020 (8 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.71) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	39 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	93 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14842. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2010–2020, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.71, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	38.7	39	40%	+15.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.4	54	35%	+19.0
Market Momentum Score	92.9	93	25%	+23.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 39 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	802	28	40%	+11.3
Median household income (ACS)	74,821	55	40%	+21.9
Households (ACS)	279	27	20%	+5.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	37.4	15	25%	+3.7
Population (ACS)	802	28	20%	+5.7
Median household income (ACS)	74,821	55	20%	+11.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 93 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+56.4
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+36.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (9)

By cuisine

American 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Dessert 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Winery / distillery / taproom 5 · Bar 4 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 3 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Earle Estates Meadery	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom		3586 State Route 14	open
Heron Hill Tasting Room	Winery / distillery / taproom		3856 Route 14	open
Hickory Hollow	Winery / distillery / taproom			open
Meg's Sweet Treats Boutique	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3586 NY-14	open
Miles Wine Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		168 Randall Crossing Rd	open
Sapalta	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	3482 Plum Point Rd S	open
Showboat Dockside Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3434 N Plum Point Rd	open
Smoke & Dough	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Pizza · American	3586 NY-14	open
Vineyard View Winery on Seneca Lake	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		211 Hall Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2003	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2019	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14842. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.