BMIE Market 14870

Steuben County, New York · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,795 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±507 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,190 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±232 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,821 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,374 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,476 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,944 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,221 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±134 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$177,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,597 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	64.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 14870
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-29.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-29.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 10–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.18) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	11 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 14870. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.18, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. New York and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,510, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.5	70	40%	+27.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.0	47	35%	+16.4
Market Momentum Score	10.7	11	25%	+2.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,795	70	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	84,476	67	40%	+27.0
Households (ACS)	4,190	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-29.4	10	35%	+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.3	63	25%	+15.9
Population (ACS)	9,795	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	84,476	67	20%	+13.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 11 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-29.4	9	50%	+4.6
10-year restaurant growth	-29.4	10	30%	+3.0
20-year restaurant growth	-14.3	15	20%	+3.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 5 · Chicken / wings 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Indian 1 · Mexican 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Quick service 7 · Bar 6 · Dessert 5 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Bakery 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Bar	American	3149 Silverback Ln	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	257 S Hamilton St	open
Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	125 Victory Highway	open
Bast Patisserie	Bakery	Bakery	315 S Hamilton St	open
Beartown Peaches N Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	5 Beartown Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	22 Victory Hwy	open
Country Pub 2	Bar		4255 Meads Creek Rd	open
Denny's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · Coffee · American	118 Victory Hwy	open
Diesel Manufacturing	Restaurant (service type not stated)		890 Addison Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	869 Addison Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	125 Victory Hwy	open
Erwinna Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		820 Addison Rd	open
Frans Landing	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	996 Addison Rd	open
Heavenly Cup Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	323 S Hamilton St	open
Heritage Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1959 Indian Hills Rd	open
Indian Hills State Golf Course	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	150 Indian Hills Rd	open
Jelly Beans	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	319 S Hamilton St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	243 N Hamilton St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	305 S Hamilton St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	143 E High St	open
Pierri Hotel Central Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		104 Village Sq	open
Preshill Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		996 Addison Rd	open
Ramada Restaurant And Lounge	Bar		304 S Hamilton St	open
Sit-N-Bull Pub	Bar		107 Village Square	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	9951 Chatfield Pl	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	STE 101 3135 Silverback Lane	open
The Crystal Bucket	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	243 N Hamilton St	open
The Last Stand	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	73 Victory Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	14	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	17	15	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	17	14	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1998	19	16	11	5	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	21	19	13	5	1	2	NAICS1997
2000	18	16	10	4	2	2	NAICS1997
2001	15	12	8	4	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	18	16	11	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	16	14	11	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	11	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	15	14	11	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	18	17	13	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	9	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	13	12	8	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	8	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	13	9	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	10	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	15	13	8	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	19	17	11	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	18	16	10	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	18	16	9	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	17	15	8	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	19	16	8	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	17	8	6	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	22	19	9	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	18	8	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	15	5	6	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	5	6	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	12	4	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 14870. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
14827	1.6 mi	1	2001

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.