BMIE Market 15021

Washington County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	7,110 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±498 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,982 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±235 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,352 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,294 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$75,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,169 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$846 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±231 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$203,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,996 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	92.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 15021
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–12) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.56) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 15021. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.56, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.7	62	40%	+24.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.3	59	35%	+20.8
Market Momentum Score	60.4	60	25%	+15.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	7,110	66	40%	+26.3
Median household income (ACS)	75,000	55	40%	+22.0
Households (ACS)	2,982	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	35%	+19.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.7	62	25%	+15.4
Population (ACS)	7,110	66	20%	+13.2
Median household income (ACS)	75,000	55	20%	+11.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	12.5	56	30%	+16.9
20-year restaurant growth	12.5	41	20%	+8.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Dessert 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aloha Delights	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1400 Main St	open
Bavington Roadhouse	Casual dining · Bar		1860 Steubenville Pike	open
Bert's Hot Dog Shop	Quick service	Hot dogs · Sandwiches	1627 Smith Township State Rd	open
Borelli Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		30 Hanlin Station Rd	open
Cowboys Catering Restaurant	Casual dining · Catering · Bar	American	1607 N Main St	open
Dees Footlong Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1205 Main St	open
George’s Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1300 S Main St	open
Heist Spirits Co	Winery / distillery / taproom		1606 Main St	open
Korki's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2038 Smith Township State Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1412-B Main Street	open
Paradise on the Trail	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	American · Ice cream / frozen desserts	1713 N Main St	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3 Spring Dr	open
Raccoon Creek Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar · Bakery	Bakery	1905 Steubenville Pike	open
Rj Roadhouse Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1860 Steubenville Pike	open
Rough Cut Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	1041 Burgettstown Rd	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1205 Main St	open
T-n-t Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1513 Main St	open
The Farm Bar	Bar · Casual dining		977 Steubenville Pike	open
The Panhandle Trail House	Coffee shop	Coffee	N Main St	open
Tkalcevic Inc. Tkalcevic Inc. Dba Ts Locker Room	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2080 Smith Township State Rd	open
Twister	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	44 Steubenville Pike	open
Walden's At 1709 Main	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1709 N Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	8	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	13	9	4	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	13	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	7	4	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	13	6	5	1	—	3	NAICS2007
2009	11	5	4	1	—	3	NAICS2007
2010	13	6	4	2	—	3	NAICS2007
2011	14	7	4	3	—	3	NAICS2007
2012	16	8	4	4	—	4	NAICS2012
2013	16	8	4	4	—	4	NAICS2012
2014	16	8	4	4	—	4	NAICS2012
2015	14	7	4	3	—	4	NAICS2012
2016	16	9	4	5	—	4	NAICS2012
2017	14	8	3	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	14	8	3	5	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	15	9	3	6	—	4	NAICS2017
2020	15	9	3	6	—	4	NAICS2017
2021	16	10	3	7	—	4	NAICS2017
2022	15	10	4	6	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	13	9	3	6	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 15021. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
15054	2.9 mi	—
15078	3.6 mi	1	2007
15053	4.3 mi	1	2016
15004	4.4 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.