BMIE Market 15437

Fayette County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,518 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±258 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	788 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±150 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,573 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,168 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$64,813 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,343 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,202 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±370 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$227,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,423 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	64.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 15437
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-28.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 3–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	35 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	44 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	31 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	25 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 15437. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	44.1	44	40%	+17.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	30.5	31	35%	+10.7
Market Momentum Score	25.1	25	25%	+6.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,518	49	40%	+19.6
Median household income (ACS)	64,813	39	40%	+15.4
Households (ACS)	788	45	20%	+9.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 31 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	35%	+3.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.9	38	25%	+9.4
Population (ACS)	2,518	49	20%	+9.8
Median household income (ACS)	64,813	39	20%	+7.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 25 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-28.6	10	30%	+3.1
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 10 · Coffee 4 · Steakhouse 3 · Seafood 2 · Bakery 1 · French 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Bar 12 · Coffee shop 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Apex at Nemacolin Woodlands Resort	Bar · Quick service	American		open
APlus at Sunoco	Coffee shop	Coffee	4142 National Pike	open
Autumn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	Lafayette Dr.	open
Barattolo	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bar	Seafood · Italian · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	1001 Lafayette Dr	open
Bittersweet Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	205 Farmington Ohiopyle Rd	open
Braddock's Restaurant and Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	3261 National Pike	open
Caddy Shack at Nemacolin Woodlands Resort	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee	Haines Rd	open
Chalkhill, PA - Fox's Pizza Fox's Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2944 National Pike, Chalkhill, PA 15421	open
Christian W.Klay Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3390 National Pike	open
Fawn & Fable	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse		open
Fuel Coffee Works	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	100 Farmington-Ohiopyle Rd	open
Herring Farm Wines	Winery / distillery / taproom		355 Gibbon Glade Rd	open
Lobby Bar at Nemacolin Woodlands Resort	Bar			open
Mae's Dining Room	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	101 Skyline Dr	open
Maywood Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2925 National Pike	open
Mt Washington Tavern	Bar		3414 National Pike	open
Mulligans @ Mystic Rock	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
National Pike	Bar		4006-4008 National Pike	open
Roadside Tavern	Bar	American	5 Forks Rd	open
Rockwell's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	1001 Lafayette Dr	open
Rockwell's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · French · American	1001 Lafayette Dr	open
Rosensteel Restaurant & Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3930 National Pike	open
Rustic Ridge The Ultimate Destination Spot-Home of The Pike Pavilion	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3930 National Pike	open
Sweet Annie's	Bakery	Bakery	514 Kirby Rd	open
The Lone Wolf Express	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		4067 National Pike	open
The Stone House Restaurant and Country Inn Stone House Restaurant and Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3023 National Pike	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	6	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	8	7	4	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	5	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 15437. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
15421	3.5 mi	1	2016
15440	4.8 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.