BMIE Market 16002

Butler County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,587 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±949 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,340 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±372 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,877 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,366 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$90,305 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,598 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$843 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±59 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$263,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,240 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	73.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16002
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+27.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+133.3% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–16) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.03) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	49 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16002. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.03, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.8	76	40%	+30.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.4	73	35%	+25.7
Market Momentum Score	49.3	49	25%	+12.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,587	77	40%	+30.9
Median household income (ACS)	90,305	73	40%	+29.4
Households (ACS)	6,340	78	20%	+15.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	27.3	69	35%	+24.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.0	76	25%	+19.1
Population (ACS)	15,587	77	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	90,305	73	20%	+14.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	27.3	69	30%	+20.8
20-year restaurant growth	7.7	38	20%	+7.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (36)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 6 · Italian 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Dessert 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Bar 13 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Casual dining 6 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Dessert 4 · Quick service 4 · Bakery 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Anna Maria's Pizza and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	113 Freeport Rd	open
Arrogant Bean Coffee House and Sweets	Coffee shop	Coffee	454 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Cheers Bar	Bar		710 Saxonburg Rd	open
Corner Cones	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	399 Bonniebrook Rd	open
Country Kitchen Country Kitchen	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	371 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Cummings Candy & Coffee South Cummings' Candy and Coffee House	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café	Coffee	454 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	362 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Burgers	151 Freeport Rd	open
Freedom Farms Donut Shop	Bakery	Bakery	663 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Grist House Beer Crib Grist House	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		795 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Handlebar Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	584 Dinnerbell Rd	open
Hangar 4·7·3	Bar		473 Airport Rd	open
Hardwood Cafe	Bar · Casual dining	American	646 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Hardwood on the Rocks	Bar		646 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Helltown Butler Helltown Taproom Export	Bar		137 Fairway Ln	open
J.R.'s BAR-B-Que	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	119 Freeport Rd	open
Knicker's Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated)		740 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Lee's Place	Bar		707 Herman Rd	open
Mama Rosa's \| Restaurant & Bar Mama Rosa’s Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	263 Old Plank Rd	open
Mandy’s cookie co.	Bakery	Bakery	141 Rockdale Rd	open
McBride Station	Bar		340 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Mill Hunky Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	779 Rte 422	open
Nicola's Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		263 Old Plank Rd	open
North Country Corn Crib	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		795 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Porky's Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Catering	BBQ · American · Sandwiches	854 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Reichhold's Cafe	Café	Coffee	772 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Rome's Cafe	Café	Coffee	312 Bonniebrook Rd	open
Rustic Acres Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		234 Crisswell Rd	open
Rustic Acres Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		456 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Seibel Saloon II	Bar · Quick service	Mexican	932 Saxonburg Rd	open
Serventi's On The Runway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	473 Airport Rd	open
Shepherd's Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	796 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Summit Dairy Queen Braiser, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		151 Freeport Rd	open
The Bonniebrook	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	104 Serene Ln	open
Vocelli Pizza Vocelli Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	890 Pittsburgh Rd	open
Wolfies Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	113 Freeport Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	15	13	7	4	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	17	13	9	2	2	4	NAICS1997
2000	17	13	8	3	2	4	NAICS1997
2001	17	13	7	3	3	4	NAICS1997
2002	18	14	4	6	4	4	NAICS1997
2003	15	13	4	6	3	2	NAICS2002
2004	16	14	5	5	4	2	NAICS2002
2005	17	14	3	7	4	3	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	3	5	3	1	NAICS2002
2007	15	12	5	4	3	3	NAICS2002
2008	12	10	4	3	3	2	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	3	5	4	1	NAICS2007
2010	14	13	5	4	4	1	NAICS2007
2011	15	13	4	5	4	2	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	4	4	2	2	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	4	4	3	2	NAICS2012
2014	17	15	6	5	4	2	NAICS2012
2015	17	15	5	6	4	1	NAICS2012
2016	17	15	6	5	4	1	NAICS2012
2017	15	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	14	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	5	5	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	14	5	4	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16002. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16045	4.1 mi	1	2016
16029	4.5 mi	2	1999

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.