BMIE Market 16037

Butler County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,291 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±401 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,116 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±160 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,589 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,850 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$93,077 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,794 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	49.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,005 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±169 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$348,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,600 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	34.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16037
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	34.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	54 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	41 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16037. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.3	67	40%	+26.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	47.5	47	35%	+16.6
Market Momentum Score	40.5	41	25%	+10.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,291	61	40%	+24.5
Median household income (ACS)	93,077	76	40%	+30.4
Households (ACS)	2,116	62	20%	+12.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	22.7	31	25%	+7.7
Population (ACS)	5,291	61	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	93,077	76	20%	+15.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	20	46	20%	+9.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (32)

By cuisine

American 5 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · BBQ 2 · Coffee 2 · Italian 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · European 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 7 · Dessert 5 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 3 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Café 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Autumn's Cakes	Bakery	Bakery	470 Whitestown Rd	open
Aviva Brick Oven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	365 Mercer Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	155 Perry Hwy	open
Burghers Brewing	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar	Burgers	100 Perry Hwy #105	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	145 Perry Hwy	open
Della Terra	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian · European · Pizza	102 Perry Hwy	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	115 Perry Highway Rte, 19 N Northgate Plaza Ste 170	open
Harmony Ems Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		102 Menonite Ln	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	115 Perry Hwy Suite 116	open
Lagerhaus Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	534 Main St	open
Lcabin Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		430 Perry Hwy	open
Log Cabin Inn	Casual dining · Bar		430 Perry Hwy	open
Los Mayas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	100 Perry Hwy Ste 105	open
Miller Travel Service	Restaurant (service type not stated)		131 Old Little Creek Rd	open
Moose Lodge 957	Bar		270 Mercer Rd	open
MUDDY CREEK BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	911 Perry Hwy	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	112 Perry Hwy	open
Popkins Magical Popcorn	Dessert	Dessert	550 Main St	open
Shubrewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		733 Spring St	open
Siam Bangkok Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	115 Perry Hwy	open
SideHack BBQ & Ice Cream	Dessert	BBQ · Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	2430 Evans City Rd	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	234 Perry Highway	open
Subway Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other · Quick service	Sandwiches	100 Perry Hwy Unit 101a	open
Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	244 Perry Highway	open
That Bar B Q Place Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		911 Perry Hwy Ste B	open
The Harmony Inn	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	230 Mercer St	open
The Legendary Neff Haus Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	550 Main St	open
The Two Fraus Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	253 Mercer St	open
Union Brothers Brewing	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom · Bar		270 Mercer St	open
Waterhole Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse	169 Hartmann Rd	open
Wendy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	240 Perry Hwy	open
Wunderbar Coffee & Crepes	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Breakfast	253 Mercer St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	12	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	13	11	7	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	12	10	6	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	11	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	12	10	3	6	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	12	10	3	5	2	2	NAICS2002
2005	10	9	3	4	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	12	11	4	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	14	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	14	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	15	7	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	16	7	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	14	7	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	12	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	12	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	4	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	5	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	10	10	5	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	13	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16037. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16123	3.6 mi	1	2015

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.