BMIE Market 16105

Lawrence County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,418 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±503 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,907 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±368 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,448 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,172 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$65,855 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,604 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,044 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±201 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$183,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,510 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16105
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	17.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+64.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	26 (range 22–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.11) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	58 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16105. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.11, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	62.7	63	40%	+25.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	52.2	52	35%	+18.3
Market Momentum Score	58.2	58	25%	+14.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,418	77	40%	+30.8
Median household income (ACS)	65,855	40	40%	+16.1
Households (ACS)	6,907	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	35%	+18.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.2	42	25%	+10.6
Population (ACS)	15,418	77	20%	+15.4
Median household income (ACS)	65,855	40	20%	+8.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12	70	50%	+35.0
10-year restaurant growth	7.7	52	30%	+15.6
20-year restaurant growth	7.7	38	20%	+7.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 15 · Pizza 8 · Coffee 7 · Italian 6 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Mexican 3 · Sandwiches 3 · BBQ 2 · Breakfast 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Asian 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 40 · Quick service 14 · Casual dining 8 · Dessert 7 · Bar 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
3 Thirty-Three Apothecary	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	121 Enclave Dr	open
All Star Bar & Grill Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2409 Wilmington Rd	open
Applebee's Applebee's Grill & Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3300 Wilmington Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service		3224 Wilmington Rd	open
BIG Daddys Rolling Smoke Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2419 Wilmington Rd	open
Big Shot Bob's House Of Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2419 Wilmington Rd	open
Bill's Sandwich Shop	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	2425 Wilmington Rd	open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	2515 Wilmington Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	3511 Wilmington Rd	open
Chick-fil-A Pittsburgh	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		467 Falls Ave	open
Chuck Tanners Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian	2305 Wilmington Rd	open
Crane Room Grille	Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar	American	3009 Wilmington Rd	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service		2421 Wilmington Rd	open
Dairy Queen (Treat)	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1801 Wilmington Rd	open
DALRT Dunkin'	Quick service · Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3307 Wilmington Rd	open
Domino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3336 Wilmington Rd	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	3447 Wilmington Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	2503 Wilmington Rd	open
Dunkin' Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	2000 Wilmington Rd	open
El Canelo Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3208 Wilmington Rd	open
El Canelo Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2421 Wilmington Rd	open
Fox's Pizza Den - New Castle, PA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1905 Wilmington Rd Ste C	open
Gallo's Italian Villa	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	2420 Wilmington Rd	open
Golden Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1501 Wilmington Rd	open
Gordo's Street Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1703 Wilmington Rd	open
Grill on The Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2419 Wilmington Rd	open
Hoss's Steak & Sea House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	2409 Wilmington Rd	open
jamesons candy	Dessert		Wilmington Road	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2407 Wilmington Road	open
Lindy's Lunch	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2402 Wilmington Rd	open
Love & Cake	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3316 Wilmington Rd	open
Mangino's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	2710 Wilmington Rd	open
Marla’s Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	179 Pearson Park Dr	open
Mays Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	2406 Wilmington Rd, 1214 Butler Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2424 Wilmington Rd	open
Mister B's	Bar		2710 Mercer Rd	open
Mitsos Restaurants Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2712 Wilmington Rd	open
Molinaros Fuel Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Healthy / salads / bowls · Juice / smoothies	2704 Mercer Rd	open
Mom's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Pizza	1700 Highland Ave	open
MP Coney Island MP Coney Island	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	2712 Wilmington Rd	open
Nahla S Middle Eastern Food Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1703 Wilmington Rd	open
Nino's Two Tomato	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Italian · Pizza	2409 Wilmington Rd	open
Papazekos Inc Dba Chuck Tanners Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2305 Wilmington Rd	open
Peet's Coffee and Tea	Coffee shop	Coffee	3230 Wilmington Rd	open
Perkins Restaurant & Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · American	3334 Wilmington Rd	open
Pizza Joe's Pizza Joe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2700 Highland Ave	open
Scustie's Super Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1101 Highland Ave	open
Sims Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	3310 Wilmington Rd	open
Soni's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	3209 Wilmington Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3340 Wilmington Rd Unit 19	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2418 Wilmington Rd	open
The Deck	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2608 Graceland Rd	open
The Grill On The Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	3208 Wilmington Rd	open
Tuscany Square Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3470 Wilmington Rd	open
Union BBQ Company	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1101 Highland Ave	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3218 Wilmington Rd	open
Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1700 Wilmington Rd Ste 950	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	17	17	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	16	16	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	14	14	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	25	24	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	25	23	7	13	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	26	24	7	13	4	—	NAICS1997
2000	28	25	8	12	5	1	NAICS1997
2001	26	22	6	11	5	2	NAICS1997
2002	31	27	11	10	6	2	NAICS1997
2003	29	26	9	10	7	1	NAICS2002
2004	29	26	11	11	4	1	NAICS2002
2005	30	27	11	12	4	1	NAICS2002
2006	27	25	7	12	6	—	NAICS2002
2007	30	26	8	13	5	1	NAICS2002
2008	32	28	9	10	9	2	NAICS2007
2009	32	27	9	10	8	2	NAICS2007
2010	32	27	10	9	8	2	NAICS2007
2011	33	29	12	10	7	1	NAICS2007
2012	30	27	13	10	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	28	26	12	10	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	31	29	14	10	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	29	27	13	9	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	28	26	11	10	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	28	26	11	10	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	25	10	10	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	27	25	11	10	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	27	26	11	11	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	24	10	10	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	27	25	11	11	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	30	28	11	14	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16105. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
16172	4.4 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.