BMIE Market 16125

Mercer County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,178 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±578 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,288 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±317 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	18,186 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,157 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,787 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,475 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	47.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$786 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±53 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$150,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,309 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	105.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16125
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-17.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-5.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-5.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-9.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 16–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.06) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	42 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	17 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16125. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.06, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	56.1	56	40%	+22.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.4	44	35%	+15.6
Market Momentum Score	17.1	17	25%	+4.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,178	79	40%	+31.5
Median household income (ACS)	54,787	21	40%	+8.6
Households (ACS)	7,288	80	20%	+16.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-5	21	35%	+7.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.1	68	25%	+17.0
Population (ACS)	17,178	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	54,787	21	20%	+4.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 17 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-17.4	14	50%	+7.1
10-year restaurant growth	-5	21	30%	+6.3
20-year restaurant growth	-5	19	20%	+3.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (57)

By cuisine

American 15 · Pizza 7 · Coffee 5 · Sandwiches 5 · Bakery 4 · Italian 4 · Burgers 3 · Asian 2 · Chinese 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Dessert 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Bar 15 · Quick service 14 · Casual dining 8 · Bakery 4 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
215 Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		212 Main St	open
4one2 saloon	Bar		743 Hadley Rd	open
Alley Cat Lounge	Bar		7 S Mercer St	open
Arby's	Quick service		340 Main St	open
BridgeWorks Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	395 Mercer Rd	open
Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	20 Hadley Rd	open
Carini Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	212 Main St	open
Carini's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1 Edgewood Dr	open
China Gourmet	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	43 Williamson Rd	open
Compadres Mexican Restaurant Compadres Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	14 S Mercer St	open
Cup of Hope Cafe & Bakery	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	2214 Perry Hwy	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	32 Hadley Rd	open
Depot Saloon	Restaurant (service type not stated)		9 S Race St	open
Depot Saloon & Brewery	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		9 S Race St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	318 Main Street	open
Execuflier Llc Dba Greenville Dq Grill & Chill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		32 Hadley Rd	open
Fox's Pizza Den Fox's Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	187 Main St	open
Fresh Grounds Coffeehouse & Cafe	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	172 Main St	open
Gallery Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	365 Mercer Rd	open
Gateway Tavern Gateway Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	1185 Vernon Rd	open
Golden Pizza	Quick service		137 Main St	open
Greenville Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7 S Mercer St	open
Greenville Moose Family Center 276	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	32 Shenango St	open
Greenville Vfw	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		54 Conneaut Lake Rd	open
Hilltop Tavern	Casual dining · Bar		25 Conneaut Lake Rd	open
Hometown Subs	Other	Sandwiches	100 Hadley Rd Unit 14	open
Iggy's Frozen Custard	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	130 College Ave	open
In Your Face Cupcakes and Coffee	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	272 Main St	open
Italian Home Club	Bar		69 S Race St	open
Joe & Company Cafe & Restaurant	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	146 Main St	open
Jules Tavern	Bar	American	34 Ohl St	open
King Buffet	Buffet	Chinese · Asian	100 Hadley Rd	open
Lisa's Subs	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	100 Hadley Road, Greenville Plaza Unit 14	open
Main Street Cafe	Café	Coffee	212 Main St	open
Majestic Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar		191 Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	63 Hadley Rd	open
New England Tavern	Bar · Casual dining		160 Clinton St	open
Padrone's Pizza & Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	140 Main St	open
Paxtons Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	143 Main St	open
Perkins Restaurant & Bakery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	100 Hadley Rd Unit 19	open
Pine Lane Produce & Baked Goods	Bakery	Bakery	491 Mercer Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	26 Hadley Rd	open
Pizza Joe's Pizza Joe's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	324 Main St	open
Rumorz	Bar · Casual dining		176 Main St	open
Stateline Bar N Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1185 Vernon Rd	open
Steph's Corner Pub & Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American	151 Main St #2	open
Stone Arch Restaurant Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		36 Hadley Rd	open
Subway Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	45 Riverside Dr	open
Subway	Quick service · Other · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	47 Hadley Rd Rte 358	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	25 Williamson Rd	open
The Bent Fork	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	31 6th Ave	open
twin temptations	Bakery	Bakery	290 Main Street	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	45 Williamson Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	43 Hadley Rd	open
Werner Holding Co Pa	Restaurant (service type not stated)		93 Werner Rd	open
West Main Farm Market & Deli	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	48 W Main St	open
Rosie's Downtown	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	41 Shenango St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	33	21	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1995	34	22	—	—	—	12	SIC1987
1996	36	22	—	—	—	14	SIC1987
1997	34	20	—	—	—	14	SIC1987
1998	31	16	9	7	—	14	NAICS1997
1999	30	17	9	8	—	11	NAICS1997
2000	32	20	10	10	—	10	NAICS1997
2001	32	19	11	8	—	11	NAICS1997
2002	32	20	13	7	—	10	NAICS1997
2003	32	20	12	8	—	11	NAICS2002
2004	29	18	10	7	1	10	NAICS2002
2005	26	17	10	7	—	8	NAICS2002
2006	30	19	10	9	—	10	NAICS2002
2007	35	25	15	10	—	9	NAICS2002
2008	32	22	13	9	—	9	NAICS2007
2009	30	22	13	9	—	7	NAICS2007
2010	30	21	12	9	—	8	NAICS2007
2011	32	23	12	10	1	8	NAICS2007
2012	30	21	11	9	1	8	NAICS2012
2013	29	20	11	8	1	8	NAICS2012
2014	27	19	12	6	1	7	NAICS2012
2015	29	21	13	7	1	7	NAICS2012
2016	29	20	13	7	—	8	NAICS2012
2017	32	22	13	9	—	8	NAICS2017
2018	32	23	15	8	—	8	NAICS2017
2019	30	21	14	7	—	8	NAICS2017
2020	24	18	11	7	—	5	NAICS2017
2021	25	19	12	7	—	5	NAICS2017
2022	27	20	10	8	—	6	NAICS2022
2023	25	19	9	8	—	5	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16125. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.