BMIE Market 16441

Erie County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,134 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±853 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,699 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±332 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	10,136 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,045 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$81,117 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,269 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$799 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±297 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$223,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28,088 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	110.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	17 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 16441
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+54.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+142.9% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+88.9% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	19 (range 17–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.86) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	79 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 16441. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.86, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	67.2	67	40%	+26.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.6	67	35%	+23.3
Market Momentum Score	78.8	79	25%	+19.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,134	69	40%	+27.8
Median household income (ACS)	81,117	64	40%	+25.4
Households (ACS)	3,699	70	20%	+14.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	54.6	85	35%	+29.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.6	41	25%	+10.2
Population (ACS)	9,134	69	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	81,117	64	20%	+12.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	13.3	71	50%	+35.7
10-year restaurant growth	54.6	85	30%	+25.5
20-year restaurant growth	142.9	88	20%	+17.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (29)

By cuisine

American 4 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Asian 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 6 · Dessert 4 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bakery 2 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Quick service 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bake&Take	Bakery	Bakery	132high st	open
Bison Beer	Brewery / taproom · Bar		13782 Route 19	open
Boneyard Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	118 High St	open
Cafe Madera Pa	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	9590 Donation Rd	open
Camp Fries 32 Degrees Lounge	Bar		13095 Washington Cir	open
Creekside Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar	American	13973 US-19	open
Danielle's World, Inc. Dba Creekside Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)		13973 Route 19	open
Enlisted Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	207 High St	open
Granny's Freezer	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	12643 Route 19 S	open
Jade Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated)		11267 Donation Rd	open
Jake's On the Park	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	17 S Park Row	open
Kim's Waterford Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	132 High St	open
Lake Erie Wine Country	Winery / distillery / taproom		PO Box 44	open
Lakeside Tavern	Bar		12774 Route 19 S	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	640 High St	open
Lucky Duck Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	11220 Peach St	open
Lumpia House in Erie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	11103 US-19	open
Maggie's China Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	201 High St	open
Mushrush Barn & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		162 E 2nd St	open
Pour House Pub	Bar		117 High St	open
Poverty Knob Farmhouse Ales	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		2055 Stone Quarry Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	991 Rt. 19	open
Teamturf Properties Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11008 Route 19 N	open
The Corner Scoop - Italian Ice and More	Dessert	Dessert	202 High St	open
The Homestead on Frosty Pond	Bar		Old Route 19 N	open
The Outpost	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	991 Peach St	open
The Scoop	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	13124 US-19	open
Wagon Wheel Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		12711 US-19	open
Waterford Pizza And More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	208 High St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	11	10	7	2	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	10	7	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	7	5	1	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	8	6	4	1	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	9	8	4	3	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	7	6	3	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	11	8	3	2	3	3	NAICS2002
2008	11	9	5	3	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	13	11	6	3	2	2	NAICS2007
2010	12	10	6	2	2	2	NAICS2007
2011	14	12	8	3	1	2	NAICS2007
2012	14	12	8	3	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	8	3	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	8	2	1	2	NAICS2012
2015	14	11	8	2	1	3	NAICS2012
2016	14	11	8	2	1	3	NAICS2012
2017	16	14	9	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	14	8	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	14	8	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	15	8	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	18	16	8	4	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	17	8	6	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 16441. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.