BMIE Market 17003

Lebanon County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,534 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±811 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,559 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±310 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,720 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,495 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$92,209 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,489 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,087 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±79 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$250,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,490 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	42.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17003
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+57.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17003. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.3	74	40%	+29.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.4	61	35%	+21.5
Market Momentum Score	70.5	71	25%	+17.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,534	74	40%	+29.6
Median household income (ACS)	92,209	75	40%	+30.1
Households (ACS)	4,559	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.8	77	25%	+19.3
Population (ACS)	12,534	74	20%	+14.8
Median household income (ACS)	92,209	75	20%	+15.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	57.1	92	50%	+46.1
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	57.1	70	20%	+13.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

Coffee 7 · American 5 · Pizza 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Vietnamese 2 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Dessert 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 11 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Café 4 · Bakery 3 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Dessert 3 · Quick service 3 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Adams Vintners, Llc	Winery / distillery / taproom		30 E Main St	open
Ancestor Coffeehouse & Creperie	Coffee shop	Coffee	104 W Main St	open
Arrow Heads Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	9-65 Fisher Ave	open
Arrowhead Bar and Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		Building 9-65 Fisher Ave	open
Brown's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	4039 Shanamantown Rd	open
Cleona Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	700 W Main St	open
Corvette Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	202 W Main St	open
Cross-Check Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		101 Landings Dr	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	1405 East Main Street	open
Dunkin' Donuts	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	750 E Main St Hess	open
Fort Indiantown Gap Community Club	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		9-65 Fisher Ave	open
Funcks Resturant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1805 N State Route 934	open
Hangry Bear Creamery Annville	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1244 E Main St	open
Harper’s Tavern	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	10486 Jonestown Rd	open
Health Check Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea · Fast casual	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	40 E Main St	open
Hoss's Steak & Sea House Hoss's Steak and Sea House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	1235 E Main St	open
Howling Henry's Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		101 Landings Dr	open
J & S Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	31 W Main St	open
Just Wing It	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	18 E Main St	open
Kettering Corner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	104 W Main St	open
Krall Bar	Bar		375 N State Route 934	open
MJ's Coffeehouse	Coffee shop	Coffee	36 E Main St	open
Napoli's Italian Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1015 E Main St, 1015 E Main St	open
Ninh Kieu	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	344 E Main St	open
Perky Shepherd Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	700 W Main St	open
Pho Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Asian · Vietnamese	103 W Main St	open
Ricker's Speakeasy	Bar		1200 Old Forge Rd	open
Rotunda Restaurant & Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		245 W Main St	open
Snitz Creek Brewery Snitz Creek Brewery	Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar	American	1805 N PA-934	open
Snowy - Hawaiian Shaved Ice	Food truck		1324 E Main St	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	120 Fisher Ave, Bldg #9	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	9 E. Main Street	open
Ted's Annville Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		103 W Main St	open
The Lazer Factory	Café	Coffee	1251 E Main St	open
Twistin' Pig	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	31 Landings Dr	open
Whirling Dervish Bakery and Coffee Shop	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	50 W Main St	open
Zion Evangelical Congregational Chruch	Dessert		710 S White Oak St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	11	8	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	12	8	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1998	12	7	3	3	1	3	NAICS1997
1999	13	8	4	2	2	3	NAICS1997
2000	12	7	4	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	10	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	10	6	4	2	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	11	7	4	2	1	2	NAICS2002
2004	12	6	3	2	1	3	NAICS2002
2005	12	7	2	2	3	3	NAICS2002
2006	12	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	12	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	9	7	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	6	5	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	9	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	9	6	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	10	6	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	6	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	9	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	7	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	8	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	9	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	8	7	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	10	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	11	7	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17003. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17077	3.3 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.