BMIE Market 17015

Cumberland County, Pennsylvania · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,385 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,397 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,811 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±615 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,798 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,579 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$86,981 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,212 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±105 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$297,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,317 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	110.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 17015
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+550.0% DERIVED: 1997 → 2017, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+400.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 7–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.38) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	33 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 17015. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.38, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Pennsylvania and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,354, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.1	79	40%	+31.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	61.2	61	35%	+21.4
Market Momentum Score	32.7	33	25%	+8.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,385	85	40%	+33.9
Median household income (ACS)	86,981	70	40%	+28.1
Households (ACS)	9,811	85	20%	+17.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.1	95	25%	+23.6
Population (ACS)	24,385	85	20%	+17.0
Median household income (ACS)	86,981	70	20%	+14.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 33 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	550	99	20%	+19.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 4 · Steakhouse 3 · Breakfast 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 23 · Bar 8 · Casual dining 6 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Quick service 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Coffee shop 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alfredo Pizza & Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	950 Walnut Bottom Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service		930 Walnut Bottom Rd	open
Bair's Den Café	Quick service · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	1446 Holly Pike	open
Bob Evans	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	1400 Harrisburg Pike	open
Bonanza Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	909 Walnut Bottom Rd	open
Carriage House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1582 Holly Pike	open
Chase Moore	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza		open
Chassis Garage Bar	Bar		427 Petersburg Rd	open
Da Dragons Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		396 Alexander Spring Rd Ste 5	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1501 Harrisburg Pike	open
Donut Connection	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	930 Walnut Bottom Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	1651 Harrisburg Pike	open
Dutch's Famous Fried Chicken and Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chicken / wings · American	1400 Harrisburg Pike	open
Embers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	1700 Harrisburg Pike	open
Fiddler's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1 Mayapple Dr	open
Friendly's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	936 Walnut Bottom Rd	open
Great Wall Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	950 Walnut Bottom Rd Ste 6	open
Harner's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	1446 Holly Pike	open
Hat Creek Farms Wine Shop	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		298 McAllister Church Rd	open
Hoss's Steak & Sea House Hoss's Steak and Sea House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	909 Walnut Bottom Rd	open
John's Diner	Casual dining	American	1400 Harrisburg Pike	open
Leo's Homemade Ice Cream	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	1779 W Trindle Rd	open
Lm And Mm	Restaurant (service type not stated)		936 Walnut Bottom Rd	open
Maria Carmen's Mexican Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Mexican	1400 Harrisburg Pike	open
Middlesex Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1803 Harrisburg Pike	open
North Mountain Inn Inc	Casual dining · Bar		3636 Waggoners Gap Rd	open
Quy Pho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	1446 Holly Pike	open
Raainsly Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		396 Alexander Spring Rd Ste 5	open
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)		236 Montsera Rd Carlisle Crossings	open
Ripple Brook Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		1121 Easy Rd	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1501 Harrisburg Pike	open
The Historic Weakley Tavern	Bar		2675 Walnut Bottom Rd	open
The Java Junky	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	1446 Holly Pike	open
The TIKI BAR	Bar		12 Oak Park Ave	open
The Winery at the Long Shot Farm	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1925 McClures Gap Rd	open
Triple B Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	1446 Holly Pike	open
Underground beer Garden	Bar			open
Walnut Bottom Family Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	936 Walnut Bottom Rd	open
Mayapple Bar And Grille, I Nc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1 Mayapple Dr	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2005	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	9	5	2	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	9	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	5	2	3	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	8	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	9	5	2	2	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	16	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	15	11	6	2	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	17	12	6	4	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	17	12	6	4	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	18	12	6	4	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	20	13	6	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	19	12	8	3	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	17	11	7	3	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	17	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	10	6	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	10	5	4	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 17015. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
17081	3.0 mi	1	2016
17013	4.7 mi	90	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.